Upon Further Review

There's been a deluge of people predicting Republicans would lose 3 seats! 4 seats! In my last post I predicted they'd break even. After reading what other people have said, I'm going to adjust my prediction to 35D-18R, a Democratic net gain of 1 seat.

One of the flaws that a lot of people put in their predictions is that they lump together seats that lean, are likely, and safe as going to that party. The Washington Post has Republicans gaining 3 seats in North Carolina but losing 4 in Illinois. CBS News reports the possibility of Republicans losing 6 seats in Illinois. Obviously The Huffington Post agrees.

In California the LA Times predicted 3-5 Republican losses. Just because one party appears to have an edge in a district doesn't mean they'll win it. When a district leans to one party I give that party a 60% chance to win the district. If there are 5 lean districts, they'll win 3 and the other party will win 2. In 2010 there were a lot more districts predicted as leaning, but even then Republicans didn't win all the districts that were predicted as leaning Republican.

So here's my second look:
Democratic Seats - Carly Fiorina won 21 of the new congressional districts and missed winning two others by a hair. Fiorina did okay, but she certainly wasn't exceptional. Here are the four Democratic districts she won and the two she almost did.

CD-21: Fiorina got 56% in this district and that's formidable any way you slice it. Jim Costa might run here, and that'd give the Democrats an advantage, but he may go to CA-16.

CD-16: Fiorina got 51% here and Whitman did 2 points worse than she did in CA-21. Dennis Cordoza is the assumed candidate but he may retire. If he does, Costa would likely run here, as his home is in the district.

I have to like any map where Republicans could sweep the Central Valley.

CD-3: This was a shocker. No one expected the commission to put so much Republican territory that Wally Herger didn't need into this district. Fiorina won here too and incumbent Democrat John Garamendi has yet to impress.

CD-24: Not only did Fiorina win this district but Whitman lost by a hair. Abel Maldonado may be unpopular with some Republicans but the former mayor of SLO still retains his popularity here. Lois Capps is in for a fight.

CD-31: No one thought that Republicans would have a shot in a San Bernardino district, but the commission put more Democrats into CA-35 than was expected. Lee Baca is the incumbent here, but he indicated earlier he'd run in the safer seat. So he may run in CA-35 and leave this open.

CD-9: Jerry McNerney might have lost if the election was top 2 in 2010. The American Independent candidate siphoned off enough votes from the Republican to save McNerney. Ricky Gill is fundraising a load of money and will mount a challenge.

If you took who was favored you'd put these districts as 6-0 Democrats. I put them as 3.6D-2.4R. There are two other districts, CD-46 and 47, which may be competitive.

If we look at just who is favored, Republicans would lose CD-27 and CD-41, two districts that nominally belong to David Dreier and Gary Miller now. People are also chalking CA-26 into the Democratic wins, but Fiorina won this district and incumbent Elton Gallegly has no Democratic opponent yet.

After that I only see one district that's a decent bet for Democrats and that would be CA-7. Dan Lungren, however, held off two Democratic waves in 2006 and 2008 in a district Barack Obama won. The district figures to be about 2 points more Democratic but Lungren won by 5.5 points in the 2008 Democratic onslaught. In a far less Democratic year, he should be favored to handle this district.

There are three other districts, CD-10, 36, and 52, which Meg Whitman won with a few points to spare. All three have Republican incumbents, two of whom have been seriously challenged in the past, while the third, Jeff Denham, is a fundraising powerhouse. I see these 7 going 3.7R-3.3D in 2012. That'd give the Democrats one additional seat. Well, actually 0.9, but I'll generously round up.