I've been through the map and I don't see too much that's really out there. The 39th has a very odd shape but adding Escondido to it helps the GOP. The 12th, 14th, and 19th look more Democratic than I think they should be, but they're not so awful.
The biggest black mark I see is that Republicans will win at least 7 seats in 2014. Yet there are only 6 Republican senators in even numbered seats. Had the commission switched one of those seats, preferably the 28th, to 2012 the GOP would have one more seat after the 2012 election. Instead they'll have to wait two years. That one seat may make the difference in giving Democrats a 2/3 majority.
A possible negative for Democrats is that three senators who aren't up in 2012, Vargas, McLeod, and Calderon, are all running for congress. Calderon looks like a long shot, but the others could be favorites. If two of them win, a 27-13 Democratic advantage will be 25-13, not enough to raise taxes. That'd only delay things, however, since these are all safe Democratic districts. Once they have special elections the Democrats would get their 2/3 back.
Here's what to expect in 2012
3 - Wolk; Safe Democratic
7 - Desaulnier; Safe Democratic
9 - Hancock; Safe Democratic
11 - Leno; Safe Democratic
13 - Open; Safe Democratic
15 - Open; Safe Democratic
17 - Open; Safe Democratic
25 - Liu; Safe Democratic
33 - Open; Safe Democratic
35 - Wright; Safe Democratic
Add these 10 to the 14 Democrats already have and they have 24 seats locked up.
1 - Open; Safe Republican
21 - Runner; Safe Republican
23 - Emmerson; Safe Republican
29 - Huff; Safe Republican
37 - Walters; Safe Republican
Add these 5 to the 6 Republicans already have and they have 11 seats locked up.
In order to deny Democrats their 2/3 majority Republicans need to win three of the remaining seats.
5 - San Joaquin County - Toss-up
Republicans have a deep bench here, with businessman Chadwick Thompson, former assemblyman Greg Aghazarian, and assemblywoman Kristin Olsen all looking like possible candidates. Democratic assemblywoman Cathleen Galgiani is termed out, and will be the likely Democratic nominee.
Tom Berryhill has been talked about for this seat, as he lives in the district. He already has a senate district, the 8th, and is in office through 2014. I suppose that if you can retain your senate district while running for congress, you could do the same while running for the state senate. So he wouldn't be risking anything running here. He'd be the best candidate and the 8th would be safe Republican if he resigned that seat to run here.
19 - Santa Barbara - Likely Democratic
Former Democratic assemblyman Pedro Nava told the VC Star: "[This district] almost looks like someone drew it for me."
http://www.vcstar.com/news/201...
Um, yeah, it kinda does. Jason Hodge, a firefighter, and former assemblywoman Hannah Beth-Jackson are also likely to run as Democrats. Former Santa Barbara County Supervisor Mike Stoker may run as a Republican.
27 - Thousand Oaks - Toss-up
The biggest grudge match on the slate has Republican senator Tony Strickland against Democratic senator Fran Pavley. Both are strong candidates who currently represent opposite ends of the district. Strickland is extremely influential in Republican circles up and down the state and should have no trouble raising a lot of money.
31 - Riverside - Toss-up
This district does favor Democrats ever so slightly but they have a poor history of winning seats in Riverside County. Assemblyman Jeff Miller is in on the Republican candidate, while former Democratic assemblyman Steve Clute is also committed. Termed out Assemblyman Paul Cook is another possibility.
39 - San Diego - Likely Democratic
It looks like Assemblywoman Toni Atkins and assemblyman Martin Block will be lining up on the Democratic side. Nathan Fletcher would be a good candidate but he's running against Rep. Bob Filner for mayor of San Diego. Assemblyman Martin Garrick appeared to be a likely Republican nominee, but he was recently arrested on a DUI.
Democrats could have a 27-13 advantage after 2012, maybe even 28-12, but Republicans could deny them that and keep it at 26-14. If they get a referendum on the ballot, these districts might be shelved and they may use districts drawn up by the California Supreme Court. If they are slightly better Republicans could temporarily deny Democrats a 2/3 majority. If the referendum loses, Republicans are okay under these lines in 2014 when they'll pick up at least one seat.
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