Redistricting triumphs seem to be few and far between for Democrats. It's looking increasingly more difficult for the Democrats to get to 218. Right now they have 194.
Special elections - Let's assume Democrats retain NY-9, OR-1, and pick up NV-2. Each of those are possible and it's likely Democrats will retain all of them if they win these elections.
Democrats: 195
Eliminated Seats: Democrats will have seats eliminated in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Massachusetts, New York, and Ohio. So that's five more seats to win.
Democrats: 189
California: I think there are too many Democratic seats vulnerable for them not to lose any seats, but let's assume they don't and win every vulnerable Republican seat in CA-7, 26, 27, and 41.
Democrats: 193
Illinois: Again I think people are way too optimistic about Democratic chances here. They'll win seats, but everything will have to go their way to win 4. Still, I'll give them all 4.
Democrats: 197
North Carolina: Republicans have gerrymandered the state such that Democrats might lose 4 seats, but let's again assume Democrats will do better and keep it at 2.
Democrats: 195
Republican leaning open seats: AR-4, IN-2, and OK-2 were seats Democrats where Democrats were at risk before retirements. Now they're all but gone.
Democrats: 192
Arizona, Nevada, Washington - There'll be new seats in each of these states. They haven't been redistricted yet and I don't expect any of them to be safe. But let's assume Democrats win all 3 of them and take 2 vulnerable Republicans.
Democrats: 197
Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan - We've already counted the Democrats losing a seat in each due to Republican controlled redistricting. Even after that, however, Republicans will control plenty of toss-up seats that Democrats could grab. Let's say they'll lose one in each.
Democrats: 200
Wisconsin, Minnesota - The Republicans hold marginal seats here too, so let's give Democrats one in each.
Democrats: 202
New York, New Jersey, Iowa - These states are all losing a seat. The Democrats will be in positive territory if Republicans lose 3 seats in them and they only lose 1. Democrats have so many seats in New York, it's hard to see them picking up much here and they could easily lose seats there. Let's give them one.
Democrats: 203
Maryland - Democrats should pick up a seat here.
Democrats: 204
Utah - Seats in this state are always on questionable footing, but let's assume Democrats retain theirs.
Democrats: 204
New Hampshire - A toss-up state with two toss-up districts. The odds are against Democrats winning both in a non-wave year, but let's give them both.
Democrats: 206
Georgia - Democrats seem almost certain to lose a seat due to Republican redistricting, but I'll give them retention of both threatened seats.
Democrats: 206
Florida - Republicans control redistricting here, but Fair Districts limits them. Still, the GOP has a bloated delegation and they're adding two seats. So let's give them four pick-ups
Democrats: 210
Texas - Republicans have gerrymandered the state so that the GOP will pick up 3 seats to 1 for Democrats, but maybe the Democrats will get lucky with the courts and instead pick up 3 seats.
Democrats: 213
There aren't a lot more opportunities out there. After having so much go right above, Democrats would have to pick up a seat in Indiana and four more in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, New York, New Jersey, and Michigan. Considering they control redistricting or share it in these states, I have a tough time seeing them picking up more seats after giving them several above.
We need to assume nothing will go wrong with open seats in New Mexico and Connecticut or districts in Kentucky, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota the Republican Presidential nominee will win.
Right now I see Democrats picking up 3 seats and can't see a way they'd actually pick up 24 without a big wave. Which won't happen.
No comments:
Post a Comment