San Bernardino County will have three congressional seats in 2012, one that's safe Democratic, one that's safe Republican, and one that will be anywhere from likely Democratic to a toss-up depending on who runs. While many other congressmen were quick to announce their intentions after the new lines were released in late July, Joe Baca and Jerry Lewis have been notably silent. Both spoke with the Riverside Press-Enterprise and... we still know nothing. Baca may run in the safe 35th or the more competitive 31st. Lewis may run in the safe 8th or the more competitive 31st. In the article neither says what they're going to do, what'll factor into that decision, and when they'll decide.
Both these congressmen are 800 pound gorillas. Members of their own party will avoid the district they choose. So while two Democrats have committed to run in the 35th, they might switch to the 31st if Baca runs there. A Republican is committed to the 8th, but would likely reconsider if the Lewis chooses that district.
Left up in the air is David Dreier. A lot of Dreier's current district is in the L.A. County 27th, with some in the 28th and 32nd. None of these appear to be districts Dreier can win. Most of the remainder of his district is in the San Bernardino County 31st. As near as I can tell the 8th may contain some mountainy area from Dreier's 26th but few, if any people. The 31st would be the most obvious landing spot, but he could try the 8th if Lewis decides on the 31st.
Everyone is waiting on Lewis and Baca. They'll have to wait a little longer.
No comments:
Post a Comment