Who really benefits most from the new California congressional map? Does it make sense for the Republican Party to challenge them? It does, but only if it’s highly unlikely it could be worse if the court draws it. Why go through this process if it doesn’t benefit the GOP?
So I decided to analyze each area of the state and score it. My comparison is to what it could be if the California Supreme Court drew it. If the area doesn’t benefit either party, I scored it a zero. If it’s drawn to favor one party I gave it a 1. If it’s drawn to give a party a good edge, I gave it a 2. If it’s a gerrymander I gave it a 3. I’m skipping the Democratic areas in Los Angeles and the Bay area. These areas are so Democratic that they’d look the same regardless of the gerrymander.
Northern California (Districts 1-3)
These are currently two safe Democratic seats and one safe Republican seat. In the first draft there was two safe Democratic seats and one likely Republican seat, pretty much a Democratic gerrymander. The final maps have packed a lot of Democrats into the 2nd district, taking some Republicans into a 3rd district that only leans Democratic. It also restored the 1st district to safe Republican.
This is almost a Republican gerrymander. You don’t want to disrupt this.
Score: Republicans +2
Sacramento (Districts 4, 6, 7)
Right now there are one safe Democratic district, one safe Republican district, and one district that is lean/likely Republican. Democrats would crack Sacramento and make two safe Democratic districts, but that’s not going to happen in a neutral map. Unfortunately, the commission has packed Republicans into the 4th district and left the 7th district a toss-up.
Score: Democrats +1
Central Valley (Districts 9, 10, 16, 21, 22, 23)
We pretty much knew that there would be two safe Republican districts from Fresno to Bakersfield. Republicans would crack these districts. The commission made two districts that are pretty much Hispanic majority, so it was inevitable that there wouldn’t be a third Republican district.
The 9th and 10th are actually a little more Democratic than they were before, probably going from lean Democrat and safe Republican to likely Democratic and likely Republican. The 16th is similar to the current 18th district, but the 21st is a lot more Republican than the current 20th. Republicans lost this district on a recount in 2010 and it looks like it’ll be open. It’ll be a prime pick-up for the GOP.
Score: Even
Coast (District 24)
This district went from safe Democratic to a toss-up. This was likely to happen in a neutral map, so it isn’t a Republican gerrymander.
Score: Republicans +1
Ventura County (District 26)
This district should lean Republican. Instead it’s a toss-up/lean Democratic. It’s definitely a gerrymander but it isn’t one so blatant that Republicans can’t win here.
Score: Democrats +1
San Gabriel Valley (Districts 27 and 32)
In a Republican gerrymander there’s a district for David Dreier. This isn’t really a gerrymander. It was inevitable that Democrats would get two districts. I probably should score this even, but I’ll give it to the Democrats.
Score: Democrats +1
San Bernardino (Districts 31 and 35)
It seemed likely that there would be two safe Democratic seats here, but they’ve packed a lot of Democrats into the 35th and taken some Republicans from the 8th and put it in the 31st. The 31st still leans Democratic, but that Republicans have a shot here is a big benefit.
Score: Republicans +1
LA Coast (District 33)
There’s no two ways about this district being a Democratic gerrymander. It’s actually a little more Republican than the current 36th district, but probably isn’t possible for Republicans to win.
Score: Democrats +2
Riverside (Districts 36, 41, and 42)
May Bono Mack has gone from lean Republican to likely Republican. Ken Calvert has gone from lean Republican to safe Republican. All this while the Riverside district is possible to win, especially since Democrats don’t have a good bench here.
Score: Republicans +2
Orange County (Districts 39, 45, 46, 47, and 48)
The 39th, 45th, and 48th are all a little more Republican. They were probably safe Republican before, but that doesn’t hurt if the area moves Democratic. Republicans have the good fortune that the commission drew a Long Beach district into Orange County. I thought that’d only happen with a Republican gerrymander. The district is probably lean Democratic as an open seat, but that’s a lot better than the current Long Beach district.
The 46th is actually a touch more Republican than it was before, but not as Republican as it could have been. This is a Democratic gerrymander sucking in as many Hispanics as possible. The district is likely Democratic, probably the best Democrats could do here.
Assuming that at least one of the 39th, 45th, and 48th will move more Democratic this turns out to be a good redistricting for the GOP.
Score: Republicans +1
San Diego (Districts 49-53)
A Republican gerrymander would have three safe or likely Republican seats. A Democratic gerrymander would spread out the Democrats over more than two seats. The fifth district is the big question. While it could be better, it’s still likely Republican with Brian Bilbray running. Still, I’ll call it a push.
Score: Even
My calculation is that the map is Republicans +2. This certainly isn’t a Republican gerrymander. The gerrymanders for Republicans at least balance out the Democratic ones. At the very least this is a neutral map. I might be too generous scoring this for the GOP, but four districts that are gerrymandered Republican, CD-21, 31, 41, and 47 might be open seats. They could just tweak the map a little bit and turn these Democratic leaning open seats into safe ones and make seats with Democratic incumbents less safe. You want the seats that are competitive to be open.
I don’t think the GOP should take a chance on the supreme court drawing the map. Yes, Republicans could benefit, but I think they’re there’s at least a 50% chance they’ll get a worse map. Anything over 20-25% isn’t worth the chance.
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