CA-29 is the district Hispanics wanted ten years ago. As soon as the maps were released L.A. City Councilman Tony Cardenas declared his candidacy. Sitting congressmen Howard Berman and Brad Sherman passed. Right now Cardenas is the only announced candidate, but that's likely not going to be for long. Senator Alex Padilla and Assemblyman Felipe Fuentes are possible candidates.
CA-30 is the big showdown district. Howard Berman and Brad Sherman are two heavyweight Democratic congressmen with big bank accounts. This will be a knock down, drag out fight and one that's likely to be decided in June, rather than November. One of the reasons is that a Republican would be a long shot to win this district. Because of that there's not liable to be more than one Republican candidate who garner votes. That candidate will get somewhere between 30-40%. If the Berman-Sherman race is tight neither candidate is likely to get more than 31-32% of the vote. And that's if no Green, Peace and Freedom, or other Democrat enters the race. There are often some fringe candidate who'll grab 0.5%-1.0% of the vote. That's going to make it too difficult for them to both finish first and second. I look forward to it.
In June, San Bernardino Democrats wanted congressman Lee Baca to run in the Ontario district. Baca demurred, wanting to run in the safer San Bernardino district. That's been reversed. The Ontario district is safe Democratic, but the San Bernardino district is only slightly Democratic. If Baca runs in CD-35, that'd leave CD-31 wide open. As Aaron Blake suggests this'd be the best landing spot for David Dreier. Upland and Rancho Cucamonga are loaded with Dreier voters and both cities are in this district. At the other end of the district there are Jerry Lewis Republican voters in Redlands, Loma Linda, and Grand Terrace. Lewis is likely to run in CA-8. Dreier has been regarded as doomed since the commission started its job. He might not be.
The 32nd is another new Hispanic district and Assemblymember Roger Hernández has already declared. Assemblymember Anthony Portantino may be his challenger. This should be another entertaining Democrat on Democrat district.
Mary Bono Mack is likely to run in CD-36. Steve Pougnet, the mayor of Palm Springs, has declined a rematch with Bono Mack. She might not get a quality opponent. This district is a little more Republican than Bono Mack's old district. She figures to be fairly safe here.
Rep. Grace Napolitano has decided on CA-38. She has a challenge from state senator Ronald Calderon in yet another Democratic face-off.
Linda Sanchez also lives in the district and she may want to avoid a grudge match against Napolitano. Her alternatives aren't great. She could move to San Bernardino or Riverside, but neither of those areas are in her district. Carpetbagging is always a questionable choice. Sanchez could run in CA-47. It's not a safe Democratic district and Alan Lowenthal is likely to beat her there. She'd finish third in the primary.
Craig Huey has told his supporters not to throw away their yard signs. The district Huey ran in last month, CA-36, was fairly blue but didn't include his home down on the PV Peninsula. That's currently in Rohrabacher's red district. His home will be in Waxman's district, one that'd be a real long shot for a Republican to win as an open seat, let alone against Henry Waxman.
The alternative for Huey is CA-47, which goes from Long Beach into Orange County. It doesn't contain his home but it's a few points more Republican than the new CA-33 and is likely to have no incumbent running. Huey would likely face off against Lowenthal in the fall.
CA-44 is likely to have a Hahn-Richardson face off in June and again in November. This was the second worst district in the state for Meg Whimtman, so no Republican is likely generate much support.
From 2004 to 2010 there were two new reps each year. In 2012 there are seven open seats, but there could be easily twice that many new reps. The Wild West indeed.
No comments:
Post a Comment