Tuesday, August 16, 2011

California 43 and 44

The Hahn family bread and butter has always been working class people. The poorer the better. Kenneth Hahn was widely loved in the African-American community and Janice Hahn trades on that. Yet this part of LA has elected African-Americans to congress even as it's become a Hispanic district.

Whoever can get Black community leaders behind them has a big leg up. Laura Richardson is... ethically challenged, so they might pass on her. I don't know much about Hall.

Ten or 15 years ago Hispanic elected officials were nowhere, but now there's a lot of strength. Napolitano, Roybal-Allard, and Becerra have all staked out seats. Tony Cardenas and Roger Hernandez are likely favorites in new districts.

Linda Sanchez has no district right now. There's no reason she can't run in the 44th. A Hispanic like Sanchez could win the 44th even after all these candidates have declared. The district is 49% Hispanic CVAP, so being able to do an interview in Spanish on KMEX can be very very important.

The 43rd is intriguing. It's plurality Black CVAP. That usually leads to a Black elected official, but no one has declared for this district. It's been assumed that Maxine Waters will run here, but she hasn't announced her intentions. She turned 73 yesterday. She could call it quits. Of course if she does, there'll be no shortage of Black candidates. Could a Hispanic win? The district is 33% Black/29% Hispanic CVAP. No Hispanic has won such a district, but that's only the case until someone does.

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