Could Bass or Lee be beat?

The Voting Rights Act says, that minorities should be able to elect the candidate of their choice. Their choice is interpreted as being someone of the same ethnic group. After all, why would someone who is Hispanic choose anyone other than a Hispanic?

What the minimum population percentage is varies from state to state. In some back room the ethnic group's politicians determine the minimum percentage of their ethnic group so that they can keep their elected position. The candidate of their choice is determined as the person who wants to get re-elected. In many states the level is 51% CVAP. Not only does this elect the minority candidate, but usually elects him or her in a one sided race.

California is a bit trickier for Black candidates. While Blacks used to have majorities or near majorities in three Southern California districts there aren't enough Blacks there for anything close to that any more. A Black candidate can win in Los Angeles with a much lower threshold, because these districts often have a high percentage of Hispanics. Hispanics vote in low numbers and they don't have well established politicians to mount a challenge.

Black activists were able to manipulate the commission to spread the Blacks fairly equally into three districts that traditionally elect Black candidates. What the activists didn't count on was that Janice Hahn would determine that CA-44 was her best chance of staying in congress. She may win and end Laura Richardson's congressional career.

CA-37 is dissimilar enough to the current CA-33 to cause Karen Bass a potential problem. They've added middle class/upper middle class White areas like Century City, Mar Vista, and Rancho Park to her district. The White population has only increased 4%, but the Black population has dropped 5%. Thus, the White population now outnumbers the Black population. And this is an atypical Black population, since it contains middle income areas like Baldwin Hills and Ladera Heights. They tend to vote similar to lower income Blacks, but that could change. Upper income Whites vote differently than lower income Whites.

CA-37 has a comparable amount of people making $100,000 to districts with much lower Black CVAPs. The other LA districts with Blacks don't compare. In Oakland Barbara Lee has a similar increase in Whites and decrease in Blacks. No Republican is going to win either district, but maybe a progressive White candidate like Debra Bowen could. None have tried before, but the rules are all new this year in California. It's no longer taboo to challenge a Democratic incumbent and it might be acceptable for a White candidate to challenge a minority candidate.