Who we're waiting for in California

In the last few days John Garmendi has decided to run in the 3rd district, Pete Stark in the 15th, and Anna Eshoo in the 18th. None of these are surprises, but what is a surprise is how slow some of the other congressmen are. These are the maps unless there's a successful lawsuit or a referendum gets on the ballot. A successful lawsuit by a group like NALEO probably won't change very many districts and each wouldn't change much. A referendum would put everything on hold, but there isn't a referendum drive yet the way there is for the state senate. It's not smart to count on a referendum that might not make the ballot. Even if it does, that doesn't mean the districts will be demonstrably different.

Let's go with who we're waiting for:

Dan Lungren
Why hasn't he announced? Lungren is probably evaluating his possibilities. Does he run in the 4th, almost certainly against fellow Republican Tom McClintock? It's a slam dunk Republican district, but McClintock is seen as the favorite since there's more of his old district here. His odds might be longer in the 7th, where he not only has Democrats lining up but possibly a Republican challenger. He may be in discussions with Tom McClintock, but I don't see anywhere else McClintock will want to run.

What are the consequences? Potentially dire. Two Democrats have announced and both look like strong candidates. Former congressman Doug Ose has expressed interest. Lungren doesn't want Ose or any other Republicans in because if there are too many the two Democrats could finish 1 and 2.

Jerry Lewis
Why hasn't he announced? Denial. Lewis keeps saying that these won't be the final lines. He seems to want the district drawn to his specifications, something that won't happen no matter who does it.

What are the consequences? Every day he waits hurts him. In 2010, Lewis only got 43% of the primary votes. Democrat Pat Meagher got 31%. Republican Eric Stone got 26%. Stone showed no fundraising, while Meagher's total was... well. meager. Lewis is likely to be on the tea party's radar this time because of his reputation as an appropriator. He's already got one Republican challenger. The Democrat will pull enough Democratic votes to get to November. So one Republican might be all that it takes.

Nancy Pelosi
Why hasn't she announced? Maybe she feels she doesn't need to. It's assumed.
What are the consequences? None. This is San Francisco.

Barbara Lee
Why hasn't she announced? She probably doesn't need to either.
What are the consequences? None. This is Oakland.

Jackie Speier
Why hasn't she announced? She's fairly new, so she's not going anywhere. Maybe she announced and I missed it.
What are the consequences? I could see a Democratic challenge but none is on the horizon yet.

Dennis Cardoza
Why hasn't he announced? He has nowhere to run now that Jim Costa has announced he's running in the 16th. He could try the 10th, but that's a likely Republican district. He could try the 21st, but that district will lean Republican and he doesn't currently represent any of it.
What are the consequences? He's missed the bus here. I see him retiring.

Sam Farr
Why hasn't he announced? It may be similar to Lee and Pelosi. He is 70 years old, so he could retire. But then he's younger than Pelosi.
What are the consequences? He can probably wait as long as he wants.

Devin Nunes
Why hasn't he announced? He might not need to. He's been unchallenged before.
What are the consequences? None.

Kevin McCarthy
Why hasn't he announced? Same as Nunes. This is the most Republican district in the state. He's now majority whip. He isn't going anywhere.
What are the consequences? I suppose he could get a tea party challenge, but it wouldn't go anywhere.

Buck McKeon
Why hasn't he announced? He could be considering retirement, although that's not likely given his position in congress.
What are the consequences? None. He's in McKeon country.

Elton Gallegly
Why hasn't he announced? Speculation is high that he might retire. His home and base are in McKeon's district, while his old one is now a toss-up.
What are the consequences? No Republicans have lined up yet, but that will change. He needs to get out in front if he's planning on staying.

Adam Schiff
Why hasn't he announced? No idea.
What are the consequences? Anthony Portantino is looking for somewhere to run. Schiff would prefer it be against Judy Chu. He shouldn't wait.

Karen Bass
Why hasn't she announced? I know she wanted a very different district, but she will run for re-election.
What are the consequences? Probably none, but she doesn't want a rich white Democrat challenging her here.

Joe Baca
Why hasn't he announced? The committee threw him a curve ball when they made his preferred district competitive. He's deciding whether he wants to leave San Bernardino.
What are the consequences? He's the only Democrat in San Bernardino County. He can choose his district in his own good time.

Maxine Waters
Why hasn't she announced? Click this link. If the first thing your website says is that you're innocent of corruption charges, re-election might not be the top priority. She might want to wait until the investigation is behind her.
What are the consequences? Waters is an older Democrat under ethics investigation in a district she doesn't live in that's becoming less Black and more Hispanic. No one has challenged her yet, but I think there will be.

David Dreier
Why hasn't he announced? His options are limited. He might be waiting to see if Baca abandons the 31st or Lewis retires.
What are the consequences? It really can't get worse for him.

Linda Sanchez
Why hasn't she announced? Other Democrats claimed the 34th, 38th, 40th, and 44th, so she doesn't have a district where she lives. That said, there are a bunch of new Hispanic districts in Southern California. I doubt she'd be considered a carpet bagger by a Hispanic population that understands moving for a job. She might be weighing her options and talking to people in each district.
What are the consequences? You snooze, you lose. Does she have a plan?

Susan Davis
Why hasn't she announced? I doubt she's retiring, but with Bob Filner retiring she's the only San Diego Democrat and there's an open seat next door. That's a better bet for other Democrats.
What are the consequences? Like Baca, she can probably take her own sweet time.