Tuesday, August 23, 2011

The Sherman-Berman Conundrum

Brad Sherman has released a poll which, like Janice Hahn's before him, is designed to get his fellow Democrat, in this case Howard Berman, to run elsewhere. The poll has Sherman at 42%, Republican Mark Reed at 26%, and Berman at 17%. This is a district that is 49% Democratic, 26% Republican, 21% Decline to State, and 4% other parties.

It seems unlikely Reed would only get 26% of the vote in a three way race with no other Republican, American Independent, or Libertarian alternative. In last year's most one-sided contest, the race for treasurer, Bill Lockyer got 58% of the vote, Mimi Walters 29%, and other candidates 13%. If there were no other right leaning candidate on the ballot Reed will get over the magic 30% mark, ensuring him of a slot in the fall.

Even at 26% he still advances. Setting aside the remaining undecided votes, the Sherman-Berman race would have to be 32%-27% for him not to. It's unlikely you'll get that close a Democratic race AND a Republican who can't get the Republican vote. What makes it hard for Berman is that while he could get a significant amount of Republican votes in a head-to-head with Sherman, he just won't siphon enough Republican votes from an actual Republican in the primary. If he can't win a greater share of Democrats Howard Berman is sunk.

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