Commission Approves Maps

The Citizens Redistricting Commission approved all the maps this morning, with them getting the minimum number of Republicans needed voting yes. Commissioner Mike Ward voted no on everything and makes some good points about the maps. Redistricting Partners takes this further, although it's difficult to see how they moved voting age citizens changed the maps.

GOP Chairman Tom Del Beccaro is upset about the state senate maps and he makes a good case. I don't know if there was any hanky-panky. There might not be any evidence of fire but there is a lot of smoke right now. Would the California Supreme Court give Republicans better maps? They should sue only if they think a map is near the bottom of what they can expect.

One thing that goes against Republicans is that there are 7 safe Republican even numbered seats, but only 6 Republicans in even numbered seats. The GOP could expect to make at least 1 even numbered seat, but the problem is that those seats aren't up until 2014. That should be fine then, but will hurt them in the next legislative session.

I'm interested to see how quickly congressmen who've been silent so far make their intentions known. If they delay there may already be challengers in the race. If they declare early, that might scare off opponents. Jim Costa declared for CA-16, leaving Dennis Cardoza with the choice to challenge Costa in the district or go elsewhere.

Ia Howard Berman reading my blog? In my analysis I mentioned that a Republican candidate should get enough votes to make the November election, leaving the Berman-Sherman loser to packing his bags and leaving congress. You can't predict now how Democrats are going to vote, but Berman could easily lose them by a few points.

So what do you do? Grab Republicans now. One thing Orlov doesn't mention is that Galpin Ford is where the San Fernando Valley Republican Club meets every month. At some meeting in the next six months Boeckmann will get up and tell Republicans there why Berman is better for Republicans than Sherman. Howard Berman will walk into a meeting no one ever imagined he would, make a short speech, and then take a lot of lumps from constituents who have never been happy with his legislative record. Berman will smile and attempt to defend his votes, without getting combative. It won't be pretty, but he'll make points on how his votes have been better for Republicans than what Brad Sherman voted. He'll probably emphasize how his work has benefitted their business.

Everyone knows a Democrat will win the election in November 2012. The question is which Democrat faces off against a Republican. Berman won't need Republican votes then. He can get by with Democratic votes. He needs them now. Most of the people there won't vote for Berman in June, but he doesn't need most of them. If Berman can grab 15% of Republican voters next June, say 5% of the total vote, that'd likely be enough to help him finish top two.