California Congressional Map Analysis

Contrary to chicken little fears, these maps, with a couple of exceptions, are very good for Republicans. I put it at 34D-19R. Sound familiar?

1: Whitman 59%; Fiorina 65%; Safe R
Wally Herger was going to get a safe district, but this is one he won't be challenged.

2. Whitman 32%; Fiorina 32%; Safe D
Woolsey retires. Strangely, Whitman and Fiorina were fairly even in strong Democratic districts, but Fiorina beat Whitman by 5 or 6 points in more competitive districts.

3. Whitman 46%; Fiorina 51%; Lean D
This is a bit of a surprise. I didn't expect them to put so much rural territory with Sacramento's western suburbs. Fiorina won here, so it's worth a shot.

4 Whitman 60% Fiorina 65%; Safe R
Tom McClintock has nothing to worry about

5 Whitman 33% Fiorina 33%; Safe D
6 Whitman 30% Fiorina 35%; Safe D
11 Whitman 36% Fiorina 36%; Safe D
12 Whitman 18% Fiorina 16%; Safe D
13 Whitman 12% Fiorina 12%; Safe D
14 Whitman 30% Fiorina 29%; Safe D
15 Whitman 37% Fiorina 37%; Safe D
17 Whitman 36% Fiorina 32%; Safe D
18 Whitman 37% Fiorina 35%; Safe D
19 Whitman 36% Fiorina 33%; Safe D
20 Whitman 33% Fiorina 33%; Safe D
Let Kos analyze these districts and add 11 to the Democratic total.

7 Whitman 47% Fiorina 53%; Lean R
This is about the mid-point of what Dan Lungren could've expected. It's no Republican gerrymander but he should win.

8 Whitman 59% Fiorina 63%; Safe R
Jerry Lewis lives outside the district but he'll likely run here.

9 Whitman 45% Fiorina 49%; Lean D
McNerney announced he'd run here, but this is no slam dunk. I assume Ricky Gill will challenge him.

10 Whitman 53% Fiorina 57%; Likely R
Good district for Jeff Denham.

16 Whitman 46% Fiorina 51%; Toss-up
Does Dennis Cordoza run here? GOP challenger?

21 Whitman 48% Fiorina 56%; Toss-up
Which are the better numbers? Whitman or Fiorina? David Valadao will challenge him.

22 Whitman 64% Fiorina 68%; Safe R
Devin Nunes gets more Republicans than he needs.

23 Whitman 64% Fiorina 71%; Safe R
Democrats haven't put anyone up against McCarthy since 2006. I doubt this district is high on the to do list.

24 Whitman 50% Fiorina 51%; Toss-up
Grudge match! I think this'll be Abel Maldonado vs. Lois Capps. It may be lean Democratic because Capps is an incumbent, but Maldonado is high profile.

25 Whitman 57% Fiorina 59%; Safe R
Buck McKeon cruises to victory.

26 Whitman 48% Fiorina 51%; Toss-up
Even though they've removed Simi Valley, for reasons I don't understand, I assume this is where Gallegly runs. If not, Tony Strickland might have a go at it.

27 Whitman 41% Fiorina 42%
28 Whitman 33% Fiorina 33%
29 Whitman 27% Fiorina 27%
30 Whitman 39% Fiorina 39%
32 Whitman 38% Fiorina 38%
33 Whitman 43% Fiorina 42%
34 Whitman 18% Fiorina 18%
35 Whitman 36% Fiorina 38%
37 Whitman 16% Fiorina 16%
38 Whitman 38% Fiorina 40%
40 Whitman 21% Fiorina 21%
43 Whitman 26% Fiorina 26%
44 Whitman 17% Fiorina 17%
Put 13 more in the D column. The most interesting district here is the 33rd. With the addition of so many Democrats north of the airport and dropping Torrance Craig Huey should look elsewhere. I think Henry Waxman runs here, but he's a weird fit for the South Bay.

31 Whitman 46% Fiorina 49%; Lean D
Joe Baca dismissed running in what's now CD#35 when the county party pushed for it, saying he thought this district would be easier. Not any more. They put in too many Republicans, including Lewis' home in Redlands. I imagine Hispanics groups will go nuts over this district, since it's not Hispanic majority. Worth watching.

36 Whitman 53% Fiorina 55%; Likely R
As good as Mary Bono Mack could expect. I think she'll do fine in this district.

39 Whitman 59% Fiorina 60%; Safe R
Gary Miller get your thank you notes out! In the first draft Diamond Bar was in the Asian district, but here he gets some great parts of Riverside and Orange County. Ed Royce might pass on this district, leaving Shawn Nelson as the toughest Republican challenger.

41 Whitman 44% Fiorina 46%; Lean D
Jeff Miller and John Tavaglione have announced runs, but no Democrat has yet. This is a Hispanic majority seat but I'm not willing to put it in the D column yet.

42 Whitman 62% Fiorina 65%; Safe R
Ken Calvert breathes a sigh of relief. This district is almost entirely new to him, but it's more Republican.

45 Whitman 64% Fiorina 65%; Safe R
This is a natural for John Campbell, although Ed Royce has expressed an interest in running here.

46 Whitman 45% Fiorina 45%; Likely D
They could've drawn up a safe Democratic district for Loretta Sanchez, but this is close enough. She'll be tough to beat.

47 Whitman 46% Fiorina 46%; Lean D
This is a gift to the Republican Party, that makes up for the rotten South Bay district. They've put Long Beach in with enough OC Republicans to make this district competitive. Laura Richardson has indicated she's unlikely to run here, so Alan Lowenthal might be the leading candidate. Craig Huey could run here and it could be competitive.

48 Whitman 63% Fiorina 63%; Safe R
Dana Rohrabacher might retire. If so, John Campbell could run here.

49 Whitman 59% Fiorina 60%; Safe R
Darrell Issa has nothing to worry about.

50 Whitman 66% Fiorina 69%; Safe R
Neither does Duncan Hunter.

51 Whitman 35% Fiorina 36%; Safe D
Open for a Hispanic candidate.

52 Whitman 54% Fiorina 54%; Likely R
I think this is likely to keep Brian Bilbray in congress.

53 Whitman 44% Fiorina 44%; Safe D
Susan Davis is too tough to challenge.