Thursday, November 10, 2016

Where Trump Helped Downballot

I said for months that Trump wouldn't impact downballot positively or negatively. Republicans weren't that associated with him that he wouldn't have positive or negative coattails. It seems I was wrong in rural areas. Trump may have gotten rural voters in Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania who'd voted Democratic in the past to not only vote for him but also down ballot Republicans. He may have helped Jason Lewis win MN-2 and almost got the GOP MN-1 and MN-8. The congressional margins in rural Wisconsin races were laughers for the GOP. With himself as the VP candidate Paul Ryan won his district by 11. With Trump at the top of the ticket Ryan won by 35 points! I guess not fully supporting Trump didn't hurt him.

Did Trump drag Roy Blunt across the finish line in Missouri? Did he make the Ron Johnson and Todd Young margins as big as they were? I'm curious to see this election district by district, comparing 2016 to 2012. That analysis will be a few months off when all votes are counted and we can calculate the district by district performances.

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