Saturday, November 19, 2016

House of Representatives Vote Update, Republicans 51.1%-49.9%

I've been busy compiling the House of Representatives vote also. This is more difficult, as some states don't update their votes. Other states don't list vote totals for candidates who run unopposed. Thus, I went to county election websites to get some of these. My numbers are incomplete, as every county doesn't list vote totals. When all the votes are counted, however, all the states except Oklahoma and Florida list vote totals for candidates who run unopposed.

Republicans now lead by 51.15%-48.85%, a drop from leading 52.1%-47.9% the day after the election. There are two main reasons for this. Because most of the unopposed candidates whose totals I've updated are Democrats they've gained quite a few votes from that research. California is the bulk of the post-election day vote counting and Democrats have gotten 64% of the vote in the state. Thus, I expect the margin to drop to roughly a 50.9%-49.1% Republican win. In 2012 Democrats won by 1.2%. So 2016 could be a 3.0% improvement for Republicans. I expect Donald Trump's margin improvement to be around 2.1%.

1 comment:

  1. Hi. Thanks for this. I did discover one mistake. TX-3 third party vote is not 133,063 but 13,363