Tuesday, November 8, 2016

Capital Weekly Exit Poll

Capital Weekly, a California politics publication, did an exit poll via the Internet of VBM voters. They didn’t weight the returns. That means that if there's a congressional district where the VBM returns were 35%D/45%R, their poll could be 50%D/25%R.

They don’t give a Presidential bottom line but it looks like Hillary Clinton 66%-24%. Barack Obama won 61%-38%, so Clinton would nearly double his margin. California is roughly 10% of all votes, so it heavily influences the national vote. If Hillary Clinton were to win states by 19% more than Barack Obama she'd win the election by 23%. There isn't a lot of room for Clinton to improve on the California minority vote because Barack Obama did so well with it. She doesn't do as well as he did with African-Americans and Asians, but does better with Latinos. Overall she's only helped a little bit. Where she picks up the vote is the white vote. Clinton wins that 63%-27%. Who said Hillary Clinton was weak with working class whites? Mitt Romney won it by 53%-45%. That's a 44 point swing. If we apply that to the whole country, which has a much whiter electorate than California, Hillary Clinton wins the national popular vote by 32%. I'm guessing those saying it's a 4 point race will have egg on their face!

Clinton would heavily Republican districts like CA-4, C-22, CA-39, CA-42, CA-45, CA-48, CA-49, and CA-50. She’d win Republican congressman Ed Royce’s district by 23 and congresswoman Mimi Walters by 27. Trump would win only 4 congressional districts, CA-1, 8, 21, and 23. Strangely, one of those districts is David Valadao’s district. Barack Obama won that district and Valadao is considered to be in trouble.

Needless to say, the Republican congressional delegation would get wiped out. Jeff Denham, Darrell Issa, and Steve Knight are considered to be in competitive races. Not only would they lose but so would Dana Rohrabacher, Ed Royce, Mimi Walters, and Ken Calvert. Duncan Hunter wins a squeaker. I’m guessing none of them will see it coming.

Going further down ballot the GOP would lose 3 state senate districts and 12 assembly districts. If you're a Democrat reading this, and those sound about right, don't bother reading my California predictions coming in the next post.

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