Friday, November 4, 2016

2016 Presidential Polls 11/4/16

While I'm still getting the percentages on many states from Internet only polls my state aggregate has come in line with the national averages. The state polls show Hillary Clinton with a 3.2% lead. The national polls show her with a 3.1% lead. Clinton led by 3.2% on Wednesday, so she's stemmed the bleeding in the last few days. If Clinton can keep her lead above 3.0% in polling she should win even if there's a polling error.

My current projection has Clinton winning the electoral college 319-219, but Donald Trump is polling within 4.0% in states with 109 electoral votes. Trump would only need 51 electoral votes to win. Contrary to what you may be hearing, if Trump gets the race closer he has a number of paths to victory. Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Colorado, and Virginia are all in play.

Senate polling isn't always moving in the same direction as Presidential polling. Trump seems to be gaining Never Trumpers, people who were likely already voting for Republican Senate candidates.

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