Monday, November 7, 2016

2016 Presidential Polls 11/7/16

Here is the last national v. state poll comparison. While Hillary Clinton ticked up in the national polls over the weekend from a 2.7% lead to a 3.3% lead, she didn't see a corresponding jump in the state polls. They remained at 3.1%. Some of this could be due to the presidential polls catching up to the state polls, but more likely it was because a lack of state polls, especially in some bigger states, didn't move the needle.

We did see a tightening in swing state polls. Going into the weekend Clinton led these by an aggregate of 1.0% and now leads by 0.4%. That suggests a closer race with around a Clinton lead of 2.7%. If the results end up like the spreadsheet Hillary Clinton wins 316 electoral votes to 222 for Donald Trump. Trump is polling within 2% on another 48 electoral votes, however. That'd give him 270, enough to win. There are another 34 electoral votes where Clinton leads by roughly 3%. With a little tightening and a polling error in Donald Trump's favor and he could win the presidency even when losing the popular vote by 2%. The polls underestimated Democrats in 2012 and Republicans in 2014 and I don't have great confidence they're getting the electorate right. Of course if the polling error is in Clinton's favor she could top 360 electoral votes.

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