Wednesday, November 2, 2016

2016 Presidential Polls 11/2/16

In the last day Hillary Clinton's national lead has dropped by roughly 0.5% from 3.7% to 3.2% and her lead in the state polls has dropped from 4.7% to 4.3%. In the 14 swing state polls Clinton is 1.5% behind Barack Obama. If that margin were applied everywhere Clinton would be up by 2.3%. As I've mentioned before, the non-swing state poll data I'm using is older and reflects a time when Clinton had more of a lead. Based solely on the polls I'm inclined to believe her lead is 2.5%-3.0%. That's very close, especially when there appear to be more swing states than there have been in the past. Donald Trump has a number of paths to 270.

As I mentioned yesterday in my senate polling analysis, polling has been inaccurate the last two cycles. Barack Obama won by 3% more than the polls said he should. If the polls are wrong, Trump could be in the lead or Clinton could have a bigger lead. The polls are close enough where polling error, if it happens, could come into play.

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