Saturday, November 5, 2016

2016 Presidential Polls 11/5/16

Polling yesterday kept my state by state tracker pretty much the same. Hillary Clinton went from leading by 3.2% to 3.1%. On the other hand, the 538 national margin dropped from 3.1% to 2.7%. One of the reasons the state polls didn't drop by much was that a new California poll came out showing Clinton leading by 24 points in the state. That upped her margin there to 22 points, a 2 point lift. Because of its size, California accounted for 0.2% for Clinton. Without it, she would've dropped to 2.9%. On the other hand, the swing state moved a little bit toward Clinton and those now suggest a 3.3% Clinton win. If Clinton can keep the polls in the 3 point range, she probably wins even with a poll bias toward her.

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