Tuesday, November 8, 2016

California Predictions: Dems win big in Assembly, No change in Congress

I've written a lot of analysis about the races, so I'm just going to let my predictions, on the linked spreadsheet, speak for themselves. I predict no change in the congressional seats, but Democrats picking up five assembly and one senate seat. That'll give them supermajorities in both houses.

In 2012, I overestimated Republicans, but there were two reasons for that. It was the first year of top two, so I didn't have data to go on and there was a late surge of Democratic registration that no one knew about. Republicans didn't take all the seats I had them getting in 2014 but I had them in competitive races in a number of districts that people said were uncompetitive. In a few hours analysis and predictions won't matter. We'll see by the results.

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