Sunday, November 13, 2016

The Final Margin will be...

This morning Nate Cohn speculated that Clinton would win by at least 1.5%, if not 2.0%.

I guessed that even 1.5% would be stretching it. I was challenged by someone on Twitter that Clinton would get there because there were 7 million votes left in dark blue states. I went through the states and estimated there are 5.8 million votes left. They've already counted 4.0 million and I'd guess this person didn't know that. I also estimated 4.3 million of the 5.8 million are in dark blue states.

So I had to guess how many ballots are left in each state and how they'll vote. In many states the first part of that is based on a little info and I could be wildly off on states that haven't shared that data. I mostly used this estimate. In some cases, however, the states have surpassed the numbers listed already.

I estimated how the new ballots would go based on previous voting. That's pretty much a wild guess. I arrived at Clinton winning the remaining ballots by 20% and a final margin of 1.4%. For it to get to 2.0%, she'd have to win 7 million ballots by 29%. She only has margins that big in DC and Hawaii, so I doubt she'll average that for the rest of the ballots. So I'll predict the margin will be no greater than 1.5% and will likely be less.

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