Thursday, October 23, 2014

California Generic Congressional Ballot

Respected California pollster PPIC is out with a new poll. They poll the governor's race and Jerry Brown leads 52%-36%. I think he's on target for 58-60%, which is what I've been saying since the primary. People have overestimated Brown, thinking he'd exceed the highest a Democrat has done in the state.

The generic congressional ballot is very interesting. Democrats lead 48%-41%. That projects to around 54%-46%. If you rejigger the 2012 vote to include one Democrat and one Republican in every race, the vote would've been 60%-40%. Republicans would improve by an average of 12% in each district. Democrats won 8 districts by 12% or less and two more by 12-15%. If Democrats finish at 54%-46% in the congressional ballot we are going to see around 10 congressional districts flip. It's simple math. If Republicans actually get 46%, they have to improve by an average of 12 points in every district. I'm skeptical that Republicans are really doing that well, although some of the VBM numbers are very positive. The poll numbers are the poll numbers whether I'm skeptical or not. It's an either or thing. If this poll is right, we could be seeing big Republican gains. This poll would have to be wrong for us not to see big Republican gains.

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