Friday, October 17, 2014

2014 VBM Returns through 10/16

Another 125,050 ballots were added to California, putting the VBM return at a little over 3%. In the past two elections we’ve had over 50% of VBM ballots returned. So we have a ways to go. The ballots are still being reported when the counties decide to give the information to the Secretary of State. The returns remain 40%D/38%R. While this is a good result for the GOP, some big Democratic counties including Los Angeles haven’t reported a lot of VBM returns. It’s difficult to say if the return number actually is good for the GOP.

Fortunately, we’re not that worried about how the parties are doing statewide, as most of those elections aren’t expected to be competitive. I’ll include all potentially competitive districts now, although I’ll note those where the returns are so low that it doesn’t pay to analyze them.

CA-3: Returns are D+12. They were D+5 in 2012. It looks like John Garamendi is safe.

CA-7: We’re now at D+2, down from D+3. It's worth noting that returns in the primary were D+1 and Democrats led by 1.5% after the VBM ballots were counted and Republicans won by 4.3%.

CA-9: Returns are D+15 after D+9 in 2012. Jerry McNerney is safe.

CA-10: Still not enough returns to make any determination.

CA-16: No new reporting today, so yesterday’s strong report for Jim Costa remains.

CA-21: Returns go from D+2 to D+3. They were D+5 in 2012, so David Valadao should be fine.

CA-24: The returns remain at R+2. It's worth noting that primary VBM returns were even and Democrats had a 2.1% lead after those were counted. Republicans won the election day and after election day vote. It'd take a lot of convincing for me to think Lois Capps is in trouble.

CA-26: No new results. Returns remain at D+6, very positive for Julia Brownley.

CA-31: At some point San Bernardino county may look at their mail. It hasn’t happened yet.

CA-36: Riverside county reported 10,741 new ballots, nearly quadrupling the total. It’s good news for Brian Nestande, as returns are now R+1, instead of D+2. They were R+4 in 2012. In most districts a Republican will win with more Republican ballots coming in, but Raul Ruiz won in 2012 with more Republican ballots. Is that something unique to this district or a fluke?

CA-41: This district is a long shot to be competitive, but returns are D+3, compared to D+8 in 2012.

CA-52: No new ballots. The ballots are R+9. VBM was R+6 in 2012 and it was R+10 in the primary when Republicans romped. This remains very good for Carl DeMaio.

State Senate<br /> We don’t have baseline results for these state senate districts since they weren’t up in 2012. We do have VBM returns for them, however.

SD-12: Democrats aren’t really trying here. It’s D+7 after D+10 in 2012. It was D+5 in the primary and that was okay for Anthony Cannella to win by 28%.

SD-14: Returns are D+13 and were D+10 in 2012. VBM in the primary were only D+5. So it could be close.

SD-34: Returns were R+6 in 2012 and are now R+7. Los Angeles county has reported less and but I don’t think that’ll be advantageous to Jose Solorio. Barack Obama got 54.8% in Los Angeles county and 54.5% in Orange county.

AD-16: I don't think this'll be a competitive race after the primary results, but returns are D+2. They were D+5 in 2012. Returns in the primary were D+8. So maybe Catherine Baker has more of a shot than I think.

AD-21: Returns are D+4 after being D+6 in 2012. Adam Gray did win by 16% in 2012.

AD-32, 36, 40, 57 and 66: There haven't been enough returns yet to judge.

AD-44: Like CA-26, this district is in Ventura county. The strong returns in that district also apply here.

AD-60: Democrats are running a write-in candidate who has yet to file a campaign finance report. It's hard to see him winning, but VBM returns are R+4 after being R+10 in 2012.

AD-65: Returns are R+8 after being R+6 in 2012. VBM returns were R+4 in the primary. Young Kim won those by 7.6% and increased that to 9.4% in the final tally.
Source for all these great numbers">Source for all these great numbers

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