Friday, October 24, 2014

2014 VBM returns through 10/23

We had another 125k ballots reported returned yesterday in California. Statewide Republicans are doing okay, better than 2012 but worse than 2012. I should note that the 2014 primary had a new dynamic where Democratic VBM ballot returns increased. It used to be that Democrats always did better on election day than VBM but Republicans did better on election day in 78% of the races this year. If voting follows the same pattern as 2010, this year won't be as good for the GOP. If it follows the same pattern as the primary, it'll be better. On the surface, it appears that VBM is up from 2010, 1,127,834 compared to 952,647 then. But the number of people who do vote by mail are up 52% since then. In fact, only 12.9% of VBM ballots are in, compared to 16.5% in 2010. There are less election day voters now. Of course, people can always bring their VBM ballots to the precinct on election day.

I'm only including VBM that's changed since the last update. There were no LA county ballots, so nothing changed there and many other congressional districts remained the same.

CA-3: Drops from D+6 to D+5, roughly the same as 2012. The first ballots were D+12. John Garamendi won by 8% that year, but this is a small enough advantage that this race should at least be on the radar.

CA-7: Drops from D+1 to even. It was D+2 in 2012 when Ami Bera won by 3%. This one will be tight.

CA-36: Back up to R+2 instead of R+1. If it moves a little more Republican Brian Nestande is in this thing. While UT San Diego has commissioned multiple polls for CA-52, no one has polled this district.

CA-47: The VBM returns went from R+2 to R+3, but that's a little cheating. They only added Orange County VBMs, which is the Republican part of the district. Since Andrew Whallon has spent $52k the entire cycle it's hard to take his candidacy seriously.

State Senate

SD-12: Moved from D+7 to D+6.

SD-14: The VBM return is now D+19 down from a high of D+24.

SD-34: Moves back to R+9 from R+8.

AD-21: VBM returns are now D+5 up from D+3, good news for incumbent Adam Gray.

AD-36: VBMs are now R+11, after being only R+6 a few days ago. That makes it tougher for incumbent Steve Fox.

AD-40: Returns are now R+7, after being R+4 a few days ago. This is good news for Republican Marc Steinorth.

AD-65: VBM returns are now R+11. If this differential continues incumbent Sharon Quirk-Silva is doomed.

A big thank you to PDI for compiling this data.

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