Friday, October 31, 2014

2014 VBM returns through 10/30

Another 187,453 ballots were added to the count and 2.2 million ballots have now come in. The problem is that this number is less than 25% of all the VBM ballots mailed out. On the same day in 2010 37% of VBM ballots had been returned. We had 10.3 million votes in 2010. I'm estimating that we'll be below 9 million this year, but even that could be high. If both the rest of the VBM and election day balloting show up at the same low rate we could see less than 8 million votes.

This is probably bad news for Democrats. They were hoping to reverse their Presidential-midterm drop but it looks like the opposite will happen. Instead of an increase, we're seeing a drop.

CA-3: No real change at D+2.7%.

CA-7: There was a dramatic change here, one that doesn't seem believable at this late stage. There was a larger than normal reported VBMs and they were heavily Republican. Instead of the D+0.2% advantage in returns, we now have an R+1.4%. This could be a reporting error, but if it isn't it's good news for Republican Doug Ose.

CA-9: No real change at D+7.7%.

CA-10: More Republican returns puts the district at R+4.6%. Even safer for Jeff Denham.

CA-16: Moved a little more Democratic at D+12.4%, but only the Democratic leaning Fresno county portion reported new returns.

CA-21: The good news for Republican David Valadao is that returns keep getting better for him, down from D+10.3% to D+9.1%. Valadao only got below 50% in one county, Kern, and that county didn't report. So his gain probably isn't as high.

CA-24: It doesn't seem like the Lois Capps/DCCC strategy has worked yet, as returns went from R+2.1% to R+2.7%.

CA-26: No real change. At D+3.0%. That remains good news for Julia Brownley.

CA-31 and 33: San Bernardino and LA counties didn't report new VBMs.

CA-36: VBMs dropped from R+3.2% to R+2.9%. Better for incumbent Raul Ruiz but not too significant.

CA-47: Republican Andy Whallon benefits from Orange county reporting new VBMs while Los Angeles county hasn't. Returns are now R+1.2%, up from R+0.3%.

CA-52: VBM returns continue to inch ahead for Democrat Scott Peters. Now at R+8.9% from R+9.3%. Carl DeMaio should still be favored.

State Senate
SD-14: Changed from D+14.4% to D+13.0%. As with CA-21 missing Kern county means less Democrats.

AD-8: Covers the same ground as CA-7 and thus saw a change from D+3.1% to D+1.5%.

AD-32: Mostly within SD-14. Changed from D+17.0% to D+15.5%.

AD-65: Continues to inche toward the Democrats, now at R+8.1%.

Thank you to PDI for compiling this data.

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