Wednesday, October 29, 2014

2014 VBM returns through 10/28

Tuesday had 189,654 ballots reported, bringing the total to 1,711,227. The returns remain anemic. That’s only 19% of all VBM. In 2010, returns were 28% by the same day. Because there are so many more VBM ballots now than there were then, this could result in substantially lower number of total votes. In 2010, there were 10.3 million total votes. While it’s tough to estimate how many there will be this year I think there could be a million less votes than there were then.

Yesterday’s returns were 40.4%D/39.4%R, another good day for Republicans. Los Angeles and Alameda county didn’t report any returns, as Los Angeles reports Monday, Wednesday, and Friday and Alameda reports Monday and Wednesday. Even after they report today, these counties will have low return rates. It’s possible they aren’t reporting all the ballots or that they aren’t getting a lot of ballots. Los Angeles was very low in the primary. The numbers right now look like Republicans Pete Peterson and Ashley Swearingen might have a shot in their statewide races, but the district races are easier to look at. The low returns in some counties don’t have a significant impact on district ranges, because most Los Angeles county districts are mostly in the county.

CA-3: The dramatic Republican returns dissipated slightly yesterday, with the Democratic advantage ticking up from D+2.4% to D+2.8%. That’s still 1.8% better than 2012 and at the edge of the territory where Republican Dan Logue could win.

CA-7: The district had another small tick toward the GOP, going from D+0.4% returns to D+0.2%. There should be the same number of ballots from each party with the current trend. Republicans are running 1.5% better than 2012 when Democrats had a 1.7% advantage in VBM. This is the only district where more Republicans than Democrats voted on election day in 2012. It’s still a toss-up.

CA-9: Jerry McNerney’s ballot advantage continues it’s sharp drop, down from D+8.6% to D+7.8%. Similar to the two district above, that’s 1.4% ahead of 2012. It’s difficult to see Republican Tony Amador winning, but McNerney should be doing a better job of getting out the vote.

CA-10: VBM are now R+3.7%, up through R+2.5%. The Republican advantage is now 1.3% above 2012. Jeff Denham has little to worry about.

CA-16: VBM was decidedly Republican yesterday and the Democratic advantage drops from D+14.6% to D+13.4%. Democrats are still running ahead of 2012 here, so Jim Costa is probably safe.

CA-21: Remember that big Democratic advantage in ballot returns. Well, there’s still a bigger advantage than 2012, but a massive Republican return has moved the VBM returns from D+15.7% to D+11.7%. There were no returns reported from Kern county, the Democratic stronghold in this district. So the returns look more dramatic than they probably are. Still, a move of this size is good news for Republican incumbent David Valadao.

CA-24: No change here. It’s still at R+2.5%. That’s a bit ahead of 2012. If Democrats have dramatically increased spending, as was indicated yesterday, holding steady isn’t bad for Republican Chris Mitchum.

CA-26: Remember when returns were D+6? They dropped from D+3.3% to D+2.8%. Democratic returns are still running better than 2012, but if Republicans keep reducing the Democratic advantage Jeff Gorell could win.

CA-31: No real change. Now D+1.5% return.

CA-33: Los Angeles county didn’t report. Update tonight.

CA-36: No real change. R+2.8%.

CA-41: No real change. D+3.6%.

CA-47: Because Orange county reported returns and Los Angeles county didn’t, returns for this district ticked up from R+2.2% to R+2.9%. The Republican improvement, it was D+2.3% in 2012, is the second largest of the cycle, but Democrats should have better numbers after Los Angeles reports tonight.

CA-52: Still steady at R+9.4%. Democrat Scott Peters needs to cut down that Republican advantage and there hasn’t been real movement.

This was a neutral to good day for Republicans in many districts. In most cases the VBM returns are running ahead of 2012. I’m not sure they are running enough ahead for the Republican to win. We might be looking at a bunch of 52%-48% Democratic wins. As I’ve mentioned before, however, Republicans did better on election day than VBM in 31 of 40 primary races. This was a dramatic change from previous years. If that isn’t a fluke we could see some Republican wins.

State Senate
SD-12: The district moved a little more Republican, from D+7.0% to D+6.6%. Still not competitive. Easy Republican win.

SD-14: As with CA-21, there was big movement to the GOP. Here it was from D+18.9% to D+15.5%. Good news for Republican Andy Vidak.

SD-34: Returns remain at R+8.5%.

AD-8: This district probably isn’t competitive, but it overlaps CA-7 and had higher Republican turnout on election day in 2012. It’s D+3.2% now, compared to D+4.6% in 2012. AD-16: Slight tick toward Democrats from D+2.6% to D+2.9%.

AD-21: Returns at D+4.8%.

AD-32: VBMs were strongly Democratic at D+23.7% but that dropped to D+18.6%. That’s good news for Republican Pedro Rios.

AD-36: Returns at R+10.3%. Again that’s ahead of 2012 for Democrats but Steve Fox will have to hope for a huge Democratic turnout on election day and that might be a bridge too far.

AD-40: The strong Republican advantage is now R+7.1%. It should easily remain Republican.

AD-44: Returns are now slightly more Republican, at R+0.4%. As with the Ventura county congressional district, CA-26, that’s much better for Democrats than 2012. They still can’t afford the returns to keep moving in this dirction.

AD-60: Returns are now R+12. Safe for Republicans.

AD-65: Returns stay steady at R+10.7%. Democratic incumbent Sharon Quirk-Silva may be doomed.

AD-66: Returns are now R+3.1%. Democratic incumbent Al Muratsuchi is getting more Democratic VBMs in now than before, but Republicans are returning at a greater rate than 2012.

Thank you to PDI for compiling this data.

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