Thursday, October 30, 2014

2014 VBM returns through 10/29 (updated)

Ask and ye shall receive. PDI has updated their charts to include an additional 100k ballots from yesterday. Based on the county VBM return rates it now looks like most counties are probably up to date. Those that aren’t are smaller. Republican leaning counties have returned ballots at a rate that’s 22% higher than Democratic counties. That’s believable, as it was 9% higher in 2012. The difference comes largely from low returns in LA county, which had very low returns in the primary.

The first batch which I reported earlier were more from Republican leaning counties. Los Angeles was among them, however, and those races had a definite Democratic push. These returns are much more from Democratic leaning counties, but there’s a Republican lean to the results. Overall, VBMs are 42.2%D/37.6%R. That’s 3% more Republican than 2012, but slightly less Republican than 2010. It’d be tough to expect a more Republican electorate in 2014 than 2010. Voter registration statewide is D+15 and it was D+13 then. We also had competitive statewide races where Republicans, mostly Meg Whitman, spent a lot of money to drive turnout. This year, the majority of Republican statewide candidates are just so the party has names on the ballot.

CA-3: Remember those VBM gains Democrats made due to Solano county? They’ve been wiped out. VBM remains at D+2.8%, the same as it was Tuesday.

CA-7: A bunch of new ballots came in but the VBM didn’t move. Democrats still have a 0.2% advantage, 41.0%-40.8%.

CA-9 and 10: VBM made a small move toward the GOP in both districts.

CA-16: There was a point where the Democratic returns were D+18. They are now down to D+12, only 1 point more Democratic than 2012. That’s certainly encouraging for Republican Johnny Tacherra, but probably not enough to make the district competitive.

CA-21: Remember that big jump when Democrats had a 17% advantage in ballot returns? Well, it dropped again from D+11.7% to D+10.3%. That scare David Valadao had seems to have brought a Republican response.

CA-24: There was a small move R+2.5% to R+2.1%, but Santa Barbara county reported VBM ballots while San Luis Obispo county did not. So that may not be much of a change.

CA-31: The Democratic return advantage shrunk slightly and the difference is smaller than 2012. Considering that there was no Democrat on the ballot in 2012, that’s a little surprising and may provide a ray of hope for Republican Paul Chabot.

State Senate
SD-14: As with CA-21, the GOP has wiped out much of a big margin for Democrats. The Democratic VBM advantage has dropped from D+18.9% to D+14.4%. There should be a slight sigh of relief as the GOP hopes to hold this district. Assembly
AD-8: Virtually unchanged.

AD-16: Movement towards the Democrats from D+2.9% to D+3.5%.

AD-21: The Republican surge in Central Valley VBMs shows here as the Democratic advantage drops from D+4.8% to D+4.1%.

AD-32: And it shows here in the drop from D+18.6% to D+17.0%.

AD-40: Movement towards the Republicans from R+6.4% R+6.9%.

Thank you to PDI for compiling this data.

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