The first batch which I reported earlier were more from Republican leaning counties. Los Angeles was among them, however, and those races had a definite Democratic push. These returns are much more from Democratic leaning counties, but there’s a Republican lean to the results. Overall, VBMs are 42.2%D/37.6%R. That’s 3% more Republican than 2012, but slightly less Republican than 2010. It’d be tough to expect a more Republican electorate in 2014 than 2010. Voter registration statewide is D+15 and it was D+13 then. We also had competitive statewide races where Republicans, mostly Meg Whitman, spent a lot of money to drive turnout. This year, the majority of Republican statewide candidates are just so the party has names on the ballot.
CA-3: Remember those VBM gains Democrats made due to Solano county? They’ve been wiped out. VBM remains at D+2.8%, the same as it was Tuesday.
CA-7: A bunch of new ballots came in but the VBM didn’t move. Democrats still have a 0.2% advantage, 41.0%-40.8%.
CA-9 and 10: VBM made a small move toward the GOP in both districts.
CA-16: There was a point where the Democratic returns were D+18. They are now down to D+12, only 1 point more Democratic than 2012. That’s certainly encouraging for Republican Johnny Tacherra, but probably not enough to make the district competitive.
CA-21: Remember that big jump when Democrats had a 17% advantage in ballot returns? Well, it dropped again from D+11.7% to D+10.3%. That scare David Valadao had seems to have brought a Republican response.
CA-24: There was a small move R+2.5% to R+2.1%, but Santa Barbara county reported VBM ballots while San Luis Obispo county did not. So that may not be much of a change.
CA-31: The Democratic return advantage shrunk slightly and the difference is smaller than 2012. Considering that there was no Democrat on the ballot in 2012, that’s a little surprising and may provide a ray of hope for Republican Paul Chabot.
SD-14: As with CA-21, the GOP has wiped out much of a big margin for Democrats. The Democratic VBM advantage has dropped from D+18.9% to D+14.4%. There should be a slight sigh of relief as the GOP hopes to hold this district. Assembly
AD-8: Virtually unchanged.
AD-16: Movement towards the Democrats from D+2.9% to D+3.5%.
AD-21: The Republican surge in Central Valley VBMs shows here as the Democratic advantage drops from D+4.8% to D+4.1%.
AD-32: And it shows here in the drop from D+18.6% to D+17.0%.
AD-40: Movement towards the Republicans from R+6.4% R+6.9%.
Thank you to PDI for compiling this data.