Thursday, October 23, 2014
CA-24: Chris Mitchum leads in his internal poll
Lois Capps won CA-24 in 2012 by 10%. It was a healthy enough margin that the GOP didn't get a high profile candidate who could raise a lot of money. There were a bunch of Republican in the primary and Chris Mitchum finished top two with 15.8% of the vote. Mitchum has never served in public office and is best known for being the son of late actor Robert Mitchum. Mitchum has put out a poll showing him leading Capps. Internal polls can say whatever you want them to say, so you should take it with a grain of salt. I do have to compliment Mitchum for putting out a poll showing him ahead. I've seen candidates put out internal polls showing them 8% behind. You aren't going to win if you're that far behind this close to the election. I don't think Mitchum is ahead, although if that PPIC poll is right, he could be. VBM in 2012 was R+2 and the final result was Capps 55%-45%. This year VBM is again R+2. If there really is Democratic turnout drop off on election day Mitchum could win. I'm not saying I think he will win and he could very well lose 60%-40%. When you get crazy data this close to the election you have to pay attention.