Thursday, October 30, 2014

2014 VBM returns through 10/29

There were only reported VBM returns in 18 of 58 California counties. Of those 18 counties, the only ones that matter are Los Angeles, San Joaquin, Solano, Orange, San Diego, Ventura, and Riverside. There are now less VBM ballots returned than 2010, despite the presence of over 3 million more VBM ballots mailed. I suspect that some counties aren't reporting all their VBM ballots when they report and others that haven't reported in the last few days will have quite a few when they do. On the other hand, this could be a very low turnout election.

CA-3: VBM ballots updated were only from Solano county, which leans left. Democrats picked up ballots and the district is now D+3.7%, instead of D+2.8%. That's much better for John Garamendi.

CA-26: Not much movement but it did help the Democrats. Now D+3.1%, instead of D+2.8%.

CA-33: For the second time this week, the VBM returns moved toward the Democrats, up from D+4.2% to D+5.5%. Republican Elan Carr's chances may be diminishing.

CA-36: There is a bright spot for the GOP. Returns ticked up from R+2.8% to R+3.2%. Brian Nestande shouldn't be dismissed with these VBMs.

CA-47: Remember that surprising Republican advantage? Well, it's almost all wiped out. The district went from R+2.9% to R+0.3%. This district was always an extreme long shot.

CA-52: I skipped a bunch of districts which either had no new ballots or a small number that didn't change anything. There were just under 7k ballots reported here, about 10% of the total. There was no change. Republicans still have an R+9.3% VBM advantage. This is a high turnout district, but there have been a significant number of VBM ballots returned. Carl DeMaio still looks good.

State Senate
SD-34: It was a very good day for Democrat Jose Solorio. Returns dropped from R+8.5% to R+6.5%. This may yet be a race.

AD-36: Like other LA county districts this one moved to the Democrats, from R+10.3% to R+9.8%. Democrat Steve Fox improbably won in 2012 with an R+15.1% VBM. So he can't be dismissed despite the large Republican advantage.

AD-60: VBM returns ticked toward Democrats from R+11.6% to R+11.2%. The GOP is still ahead of 2012 when Eric Linder won his first term.

AD-65: Like the overlapping SD-34, this district moved toward the Democrats, going from R+10.7% to R+8.4%. While still more Republican in 2012, Democrat Sharon Quirk-Silva looks stronger.

AD-66: VBMs moved from R+3.1% to R+2.0%. It's still more Republican than 2012, but not a lot.

Thank you to PDI for compiling this data.

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