Wednesday, October 22, 2014

2014 VBM Returns through 10/21

Yesterday only 23 of the 35 biggest counties reported updated VBM. Los Angeles, Contra Costa, and San Mateo counties didn't report returns. So once again the VBM reported skews Republican. The Republican return rate is now 10.5%, 37% higher than the Democratic return rate. It was 9% higher in 2012 and 6% higher in 2010. So it may be misleading to look at any statewide numbers for trends. Fortunately, this disparity doesn’t impact individual races that much. Some are overwhelmingly in one county while others have fairly similar returns in their counties. If I skip a race, it’s because there was no VBM.

CA-7: Still at D+2, although a slight tick to Democrats.

CA-9: VBM returns went from D+10 to D+9, the same as 2012. Democrat Jerry McNerney shouldn’t be concerned.

CA-10: We finally got some serious returns here. The VBM went from D+1 to R+2, the same as the primary and 2012. Jeff Denham should feel much more comfortable that he’ll win.

CA-16: VBM dropped back from D+17 to D+14, wiping away a Democratic advantage form yesterday.

CA-21: The good news for the GOP is that the district went from D+17 to D+16. The bad news is that isn’t anywhere near the Democratic jump it had on Monday. Of course this is a district where David Valadao will get a good share of Democratic votes.

CA-26: The VBMs keep moving toward Republican Jeff Gorell, now at D+3. To win he probably needs more Republican VBM than Democratic. The good news for him is that returns so far are probably around 20% of all VBM ballots that’ll be returned.

CA-47: In a real surprise the returns on this district have been R+3.

CA-52: VBMs remain at R+10. There have been 35,114 VBMs returned, the highest of any district. The huge edge remains encouraging for Carl DeMaio.

State Senate
SD-12: Stayed at D+7.

SD-14: Like CA-21, Republicans made small gains, going from D+24 to D+22, that don’t match the Democratic gains on Monday. Like that district, some Democrats there vote Republican.

AD-16: Returns yo yo from D+2 back to D+3.

AD-21 – Returns move from D+4 to D+3. This is better than 2012 for Republican Jack Mobley but he’d probably like to see it more Republican.

AD-40: Returns went from R+4 to R+5, strong for Republican Marc Steinorth.

AD-44: VBM returns remained at D+1 although the margin got smaller, From D+1.3 to D+0.6. If the edge remains with Democratic ballots, Democrat Jacqui Irwin looks stronger.

AD-65: Returns moved more Republican going from R+9 to R+11. VBM returns leaned Republican when Assemblywoman Sharon Quirk-Silva won in 2012, but the final vote was fairly even. If VBM are at R+11, she’s likely to lose her seat.

Thank you to PDI for compiling this data.

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