Who Won and Who Lost

Above is a breakdown of winners and losers from Tuesday. The Blue Dog coalition was nearly three times as likely to have a seat in play, and sure enough they were nearly three times as likely to lose a seat. The coalition was decimated. It's worth noting that the three districts Democrats won will likely not have Blue Dogs.

All three losses come from the Republican Main Street Partnership. That's not a surprise. Like the Blue Dogs, their members are more likely to be in districts skewing the opposite party. The RMSP will likely benefit from the gains, however. Congressmen in northern states are fairly likely to join the RMSP. The GOP won 23 seats in New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Maryland, Michigan, Illinois, and New Hampshire. Included among these was Charlie Bass, former chairman of the Republican Main Street Partnership. There were 42 RMSP members in the House this term. I expect there'll be 53-60 next term. Republicans will need these moderates to get a majority on any vote.

While Republicans reclaimed a lot of seats they lost, Democrats retained a third of their wins and the GOP displaced a number of veteran Democrats.

Almost all of the winners were Young Guns Level #1. While these guys might be outsiders they likely do understand the role the NRCC played in helping them win. Kevin McCarthy was head of recruiting. That makes him the perfect whip for the 112th congress.