2012: Ohio

Senate: Brown (D)
Legislature: Republicans +13 (+28%)
State Senate: Republicans +2 (+10%)
House: Democrats 5 Republicans 13
Redistricting: Republicans

The Midwest was a disaster for the Democrats. Between Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Ohio the GOP picked up 16 congressional seats, 3 governorships, and got majorities in both houses in 5 states. They had both houses in none of them before election day. If not for a sexual harassment allegation and a Nazi Re-enactor the GOP might have a 15-3 advantage in Ohio congressional seats.

In 2012 the Republicans will have to pay for their success. Ohio figures to lose two seats in redistricting. Even though Republicans control the process it'll be very difficult to eliminate two Democratic seats. If they try to eliminate Marcy Kaptur's district that hugs Lake Erie, they could endanger Bob Latta's district and lose both. It's more likely they'll break up Betty Sutton's 13th district, moving parts into the 10th, 11, and 17th. Sutton would be forced to compete with Dennis Kucinich or Tim Ryan for their seat.

The other lost seat will likely come from southeastern Ohio. The 18th district could be broken up into the 2nd, 6th, 12th, and 16th. This would likely force freshman Republican Bob Gibbs into a primary with another freshman. "Thanks for helping us get to the majority, you've lost your job." When a delegation is going to lose a seat a sitting congressman often tries for higher office rather than pitting two incumbents against each other in a primary. Jim Jordan is rumored as an opponent for Sherrod Brown in the senate race. If that happens, Republicans may try to move the current 16th and 18th districts west and split up Jordan's 4th district. That may prove tricky.

Brown is likely to be vulnerable. Republicans swept all 6 statewide offices this year and Brown only won by 12 in his election 4 years ago. Expect this race to draw a quality opponent.

Expect Ohio to be up for grabs in the Presidential race. This year Republicans outnumbered Democrats for the first time since 2004. If that holds up in 2012 Ohio becomes a swing state again.