The 2010 Voter

There are a number of demographic groups where the Republicans have done poorly in recent years. If they can't do better with the groups in a GOP year, they don't have a lot of hope for 2012 with the group. One spot of optimism is with the Gay community. This year, however, Republicans got 31% of gay voters. The Democrats have been seen as not being responsive on "gay issues." Republicans aren't likely to tout their record on these issues, so they have to set the gay issues aside. Leave gay marriage to the states and say it's not a Federal issue. Punt "Don't Ask Don' Tell" over to the Pentagon.

Like everyone else gays are concerned with having jobs and the economy. There's no reason they'd be partial to big government solutions, especially since gays have a higher level of education and a higher median income than the public at large. Say what you will about the Tea Party, but most of them have avoided anything on gay marriage, focusing only on fiscal issues. If you're gay and own your own business or just believe in individualism the Republican Party should be able to find a way to appeal to you.

The news isn't nearly as good with the youth vote. While Republicans improved from getting 35% in 2008 to 42% in 2010, this increase didn't match the overall increase. Adults 18-29 went from a 117 index to a 127. In 2012 this group will come out in greater numbers, especially the Democratic leaning youths who didn't show up this year. I'd expect the Republicans to get clobbered with youths in 2012 on a Presidential level. There is good news. Republicans had at least 44% for the 18-29 vote in 15 of the 22 Senate races with exit polls. A strong candidate can draw the youth vote.

The Republican share of the Black vote increased from 5% to 9% this year. It'll likely drop again in 2012, but 2010 shows that it isn't permanently at 5%. For the most part not getting the Black vote doesn't hamper the GOP very much. Most of the states with larger Black populations aren't swing states. A strong Black vote likely won't help the Democrats win Georgia, South Carolina, Alabama, or Mississippi. It really doesn't matter if it hurts Repbulicans in New York or Maryland. There are some states, however, like Florida and Michigan where high Black turn-out could cost Republicans shots at Senate seats or taking the states in the Presidential race.

The news isn't any better with Latinos. Democrats took 66% of the Hispanic vote. Republicans only did decently well with Hispanics in Florida, which has a large Cuban population and a Latino Republican candidate. Most states with larger Hispanic populations have a majority that are Mexican-American. The GOP wasn't able to get these voters in California, Texas, Arizona, or Nevada. They also didn't fare well in New York and Illinois, where the populations aren't heavily Mexican-American. This could bode poorly for the GOP in Arizona, Nevada, and Colorado in 2012.