2012: Iowa

Senate: No Senate Race
Legislature: Republicans +16 (+16%) Flipped Democratic to Republican
State Senate: Republicans +6 (+12%)
House: Republicans 2 Democrats 3 (Same)
Redistricting: Panel (lose 1 seat)

Iowa hasn't been very inviting to the Republicans on a Presidential level. The GOP has only won the state in a Presidential race once since 1984. This year was very positive for the Republicans, however. The electorate was 35%R/31%D, better than it was in 2004 when Republicans only had a 2 point advantage. Chuck Grassley took 65% in the Senate race. Terry Barnstad won the governership by 10 points. Democrats won 3 of the 5 congressional seats, but all 3 were by narrow margins. Republicans won 56% of the congressional vote. Had the districts been drawn differently they might have won 3 or 4 seats.

In the 2011 redistricting Iowa is likely to lose a congressional seat. In Iowa an independent body proposes redistricting plans, which must then be approved by the legislature. With the legislature split and the GOP controlling the governor's mansion the commission's plan will likely be implemented. The two strongly Republican districts are contiguous, so Republicans should easily hold two of the new districts, if not take a third. Democrats will lose at least one seat.

Iowa looks a lot more positive for Republicans in 2012.