2012: California

Senate: Feinstein (D)
Legislature: Democrats +1 (+1%)
State Senate: Republicans +1 (2%)
House: Democrats 34 Republicans 19
Redistricting: Commission

Like Connecticut and Massachusetts California was a mine field for Republicans this year. They didn’t even have the legislative success they had in New England. Running statewide is ridiculously expensive, so the Republicans usually field an unimpressive slate. This year was different. There were quality candidates running for all the statewide positions. They all lost 57%-39% or thereabout. Even against candidates like Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer who don’t get liberals excited. Even a good candidate, Steve Cooley, might lose to a mediocre one, Kamala Harris.

Dianne Feinstein is a far better campaigner than Barbara Boxer. If she runs again in 2012 I can’t imagine many Republicans lining up to face her. Even if she retires, the odds are long. I can’t imagine Republicans putting a lot of money into California again.

California has an electorate and it has politicians. The two have little to do with each other. Republicans and Democrats have one thing in common, a dislike of Sacramento and our politicians. Politicians in California get in office and they stay for life. Seriously. Thirty six representatives have been in Congress for more than a decade, many of them 20 years or more. Eleven of the seats that opened did so because the rep died, there was a scandal, or they took a job with the administration.

Sacramento used to be the same way. So the electorate passed term limits for the legislature and state senate. A politician can serve six years in the legislature and eight in state senate. This produces a mad scramble as those term limited in one chamber scurry for the other. After 14 years they would like to try to move up to congress, but those seats are unavailable.

In 2008, the Democrats picked up 4 seats in the legislature and none in the senate. This year Democrats picked up 1 seat in the legislature and Republicans 1 in the senate. In every other state there were wild swings in the seats. In the last 10 years one congressional seat has changed parties.

Ten years ago when the Democrats controlled redistricting, they set out to draw districts that protected incumbents. So they packed as many Democrats as they could into 33 districts. And it worked, because Republicans never took a seat.

All that will change because redistricting for the legislature and congress has been handed to a citizen’s commission. No one knows how that’ll impact congress or the legislature. Many people think that because the Democrats no longer control redistricting it’ll favor Republicans.

Once the Democratic districts are unpacked and spread out normally I expect the new configuration to favor Democrats. There’ll be a number of safe Democratic districts in L.A. and the Bay area, but probably few really safe Republican districts. There just isn’t that huge a concentration of Republicans anywhere in the state. I think there could be anywhere from 15-20 districts up for grabs. In a Democratic year this could result in a 42-11 advantage. In a Republican year it could mean a 29-24 split. In a normal year I think it’ll be around 35-18. For once it should be interesting.