Some people have speculated redistricting will lead to a 20-30 seat GOP gain, while others say about 12. I think it'll be more modest. When you pick up 60+ seats there aren't many opportunities left.
States with Small Delegations
Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Rhode Island, Vermont, Alaska, North Dakota, South Dakota Wyoming, and New Hampshire
These states all have 1 or 2 congressional districts. This makes it extremely difficult to gerrymander any seat toward a particular party.
States with no Opportunity
Mississippi, Kansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Alabama
The Republicans control everything in all these states but they already have 24 of the 29 districts. Of those 3 are majority minority districts, so Republicans have to gerrymander them to get more Black Democrats in, not out. Oklahoma-2 is already very Republican. So no gerrymander is going to win the seats. It’s conceivable the Republicans could try to gerrymander the Nashville based Tennessee-5, but they would risk the three surrounding districts, two of which they just won.
States with commissions
Iowa, Washington, Arizona, Montana, Idaho, New Jersey, California
These states are drawn up with some or total independence from the legislature. It’s likely that the GOP will fair better in Iowa, New Jersey, and California, while the Democrats will do so in Arizona and Washington. Overall redistricting may end up being a push with Democrats losing seats in Iowa and New Jersey and picking them up in Washington and Arizona. California is anybody’s guess since it has so many gerrymandered seats right now. I don’t see a definite net gain either way.
States with Republican control
South Carolina, Wisconsin, Indiana, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Texas, Utah
Republicans should pick up the new seat in Utah and South Carolina and be able to redistrict themselves into four seats in Georgia and North Carolina.
It’s conceivable the Republicans could gerrymander an advantage in Wisconsin-3, but the two neighboring districts, the 7th and 4th, are slightly Democratic and very Democratic. If anything Republicans will want to protect the newly won 7th and be happy if they still have a 5-3 advantage after 2012.
It’s possible Republicans could make Indiana-2 more attractive by giving it some areas of the 3rd, 4th, and 5th, while taking away some of the Democrats in the north. Governor Mitch Daniels has already expressed that he won’t sign a heavily gerrymandered plan.
Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are three states with little opportunity for Republicans. They already have a 34-18 seat advantage and these three states lose four districts. There are no more districts to squeeze out and even the best gerrymander will likely result in a loss of a seat in Pennsylvania and Ohio.
Florida and Texas have already been heavily gerrymandered for the Republicans. Florida has their new “Fair Districts Florida” amendment designed to prevent a gerrymander. It does, however, leave the redistricting in Republican hands. With a 19-6 advantage currently, a non-gerrymandered map could result in a 17-10 advantage after the two new districts are added.
Right now Republicans have a 23-9 congressional advantage in Texas, a greater advantage than they’d have if the districts weren’t already gerrymandered. All of the Democratic controlled districts having at least 45% minority populations. Republicans may pick up two of the four seats added, but if they come out with a 25-11 split they should be considered lucky.
Overall, Republicans should have a net gain of 4-6 seats in these states.
States with Democratic Control
Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maryland, Arkansas, Illinois, West Virginia
The good news here is that Republicans have no seats to lose in Connecticut or Massachusetts, Maryland is already gerrymandered for a maximum Democratic delegation, And both Arkansas and West Virginia have become so Republican on a national level the Democrats will have trouble gerrymandering them out of a seat. If anything they’ll gerrymander to keep the two seats they still have.
Republicans have 11 of the 19 Illinois seats right now. The good news is that the GOP has every non-Chicago district except the East St. Louis 12th. So the Democrats would be shuffling people from one Republican controlled district to another. That said, some are more Democratic than others and Illinois loses a seat. If Republicans finish the next election with a 9-9 split, a two seat loss, they should consider themselves lucky.
States with Split Control
Missouri, Louisiana, Oregon, Nevada, Colorado, Kentucky, Minnesota, Virginia, New York, New Mexico
Despite neither party being able to gerrymander, this group is going to be a net negative for the GOP. Either Missouri or Minnesota lose a seat, while Louisiana loses one, and New York may lose two. Because Republicans have all of Louisiana’s non-minority majority districts, they’ll lose one there. They could end up a net 2-3 seat loss with these states.
Based on redistricting, my guess is that the republicans pick up only a seat or two. Of course, with an expected net gain of 64 seats this year, no redistricting plan is going to produce big gains in 2012. Based on my analysis of each party’s districts, I’d expect 2012 to be within a few of no net gain for either party. Of course that’s without knowing if either party will have the wind at their back.
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