Obama Districts

Democrats are trying to grab onto reasons for hope. The latest one is that Republicans now control 62 districts Obama won and Democrats only control 13 McCain districts. Before the election the numbers were reversed. If Democrats can just take a majority of the difference between the two they'll likely be back in the majority. Since Republicans took "their" districts this time Democrats will take back "their" districts.

Not so fast. The baseline for the two should be their 53%-46% spread. This allows us to compare the districts to a base line average for each candidate. When we do that we find that Republicans only have 5 districts where McCain got 42% or less, and only 1 district where they got 40% or less. In that district they got 38%. If we look at districts where Obama underperformed by 4% or more, we get all the McCain districts. So Democrats have 12 very vulnerable districts to the Republicans 5.

Still skeptical? Let's look at 2004. Republicans control only 13 districts John Kerry won, 5 of which they won 46% or 47%. That's 4% or more, but caps at 5% below. Democrats control 24 districts Bush won, 7 of which John Kerry got 44% of the votes or less.They are all between 55% and 59% except 1.

Who is going to do better in 2012? We can't determine that based on the districts held, since it's fairly even and light. It'll depend on which party has the upper hand, if either. In 1996 Democrats picked up 2 seats. In 2000 they picked up 1. In 2004 Republicans picked up 3. Years like 2006, 2008, and 2010 are unusual. Since 1914 there has only been one period where there was a shift of 20 or more seats in 4 consecutive elections.

From 1942 to 1954 19 or more net seats changed hands in 7 consecutive elections. The Democrats had a bloated number of seats due to the Depression. Republicans gained a net of 29 seats in 1942 and 1944 before taking 55 and the majority in 1946. That majority bounced back to the Democrats in 1948, then back to the Republicans in 1952, before the Democrats took it back in 1954. That would make 2010 like 1948 when the majority flipped back to the previous party.

That could make 1952 comparable to 2012. The big problem with that comparison is that the Republicans took the majority again because Harry Truman was unpopular. Even though he wasn't running, he hurt his party like Bush in 2008. In 2012 the minority party's President will be seeking re-election. They voted against Truman in 1952, not for a sitting President.