2012: Connecticut

Senate: Lieberman (I-D)
Legislature: Republicans +14 (+38%)
State Senate: Republicans +1 (+8%)
House: Democrats 5, Republicans 0
Redistricting: Democrats

There's a rush to judgement that somehow the Republican wave skipped New England. Republicans took no Connecticut House seats and lost the Senate race despite Linda McMahon's heavy spending. If you stop there you only get part of the story. Tom Foley came within 7,762 votes of Dan Malloy for governor and the Republicans made big gains in the state legislature. Yes, the GOP remain way behind in the minority in the legislature, but this is a liberal state. The electorate was D+11. That's higher than 2004 D+6, but lower than the 2008 D+16.

The two western Connecticut districts, 4 and 5, were decided by 6 and 8 points. If Chris Murphy runs for the senate in 2012, the 5th district will be open and likely competitive.

The Senate race is interesting if Joe Lieberman runs for re-election. Lieberman would lose a Democratic primary, so he'd once again have to run as an independent. Progressives are unhappy with him, so they'll demand the Democrats go after him heavily. The Democrats have 21 seats to defend and opportunities in Maine, Massachusetts, and Nevada. They didn't lose Arizona or Tennessee by a lot in 2006. If they beat Lieberman the Democrats have no net gain in their caucus. If they don't spend a lot the winner will surely be Lieberman or the Democratic nominee.

Republicans won't be unhappy if Democrats spend a lot of money on this seat. They don't have a deep bench here and if McMahon couldn't get closer despite spending all the money she did, Connecticut isn't worth their time. I'd put it as the 16th most likely flip. Republicans are better off letting Lieberman spend his money and trying to entice him to caucus with them. I know that'll piss off the tea party crowd, but there's no reason to With 15 better opportunities there's no point in chasing a seat where Lieberman will likely get a decent share of Republicans and independents.