More California Redistricting

I took a further look at California redistricting. There is currently only one district where John McCain got more than 56% of the vote. That's not nearly as surprising as I thought it'd be. He didn't even hit 56% in any district in New York or Illinois and Republicans now control as many as 20 districts in those two states once all recounts are done. So clearly having a huge voter advantage isn't necessary for Republicans to win seats. Still, McCain won Ed Royce's district by 4 points. If Royce's new district is one Obama won by 4, then it could be a lot more difficult for the Republican to win.

The commission is unlikely to consider a district's current configuration when making new ones. Some districts are so heavily gerrymandered that a new district will be a far different shape. A congressman may find himself running in a district that has few of his old voters. Will they choose what district to run in based on which won has the most people who voted for him before or based on where they live? Will they trip over themselves to run in the most heavily Republican district in the area?

Darrell Issa is from Vista and has been in congress since 2001. Vista is in the southwest corner of the 49th district. It stretches up into Orange and Riverside Counties and takes in a lot of Republicans. Brian Bilbray represented a similar 49th district until he lost re-election in 2000. He's from Carlsbad and now represents the 50th. His Carlsbad home is in the northwest corner of the district. These two cities are less than nine miles apart. They are similar enough that there's no reason why they should be in different districts. They probably won't be. Will the two run against each other in a primary? Will one run in a neighboring district that he'll have to move into? What if one is more Republican? Will they draw straws?

Pitting two incumbents against each other in a primary is an old redistricting trick that may be used in Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina. California may have such different districts that this could happen multiple times.