I wanted to follow up I set out to create a redistricting map that did the following:
1. Eliminated Jim Jordan’s district, assuming he runs for senate
2. Eliminated Betty Sutton’s district
3. Keep the district similar to how it is now since I have no idea where each candidate’s base is
4. Equal population distribution
It’s doable.
1. Bob Latta’s (R-yellow old #5-new #5) district becomes the entire northwestern part of the state, grabbing some of Jordan’s counties.
2. John Boehner’s (R-dark blue old #8-new #8) district is relatively unchanged, but adds Shelby County. I don’t want to mess with the Speaker’s district.
3. Steve Chabot’s (R-navy blue old #1-new #1) district remains about the same.
4. Mike Turner (R-purple old #3-new #3) and Jean Schmidt (green old #2-new #2) get additional counties in the east due to the population drop.
5. Steve Austria (R-gray old #7-new #7) gets two of the southern most CD #4 counties while giving up some people in the east.
6. Steve Stivers’ (R-orange old #15-new #15) district remains relatively unchanged, although he’s picking up a little more of Columbus. It isn’t enough that the district will be too Democratic.
7. Marcy Kaptur (D-light blue old #9-new #9) and Pat Tiberi (R-med. Blue old #12-new #12) get the eastern most counties in the old #4 because of population declines. They pretty much retain all their current voters.
8. Dennis Kucinich (D-pink old #10-new #10) needs to add voters, so he gets the northern most voters in the old #13.
9. Martha Fudge (D-light green old #11-new #11) also needs voters and needs to have a majority minority district due to the VRA. To do so, I stretched her district south into Akron and gave her the #13 Black voters. I know it’s tough to tell that district from the neighboring #16, but I wanted to retain the numbers and the program gave those colors
10. Freshman Jim Renacci (R-medium green old #16-new #16) picks up some voters from the #13 in Western Summit County. This could conceivably make the seat harder to retain, but it is the area west of Akron and not as urban. He also gets Richland County from #4.
11. Steve LaTourette (R-greenish tan old #14-new #14) keeps most of the same district.
12. Tim Ryan (D-tangerine old #17-new #13) gets a district very similar to the one he has now, with a bit more of Youngstown and eastern Summit County. This district was fairly blue before and should be even bluer.
13. Bob Gibbs (R-red old #18-new #4) loses some of the southern portion of his district and gains the Canton area. This is part of Jim Renacci’s district now, so I don’t think it’ll hurt him too much.
14. Bill Johnson (R-dark green) loses some of the southern portion of #6 and gains some of the southern portion of the current #18.
15. Where does this leave Betty Suttion (D old #13)? Her home is in the #16, so she could run against Jim Renacci. Her voters are mostly now in the #10 and #11, but I don’t see her running against Kucinich or Fudge. It’s too bad Renacci has to go up against a sitting representative, but he’s a freshman and the district is mostly his current constituents.
If Jordan doesn't run Republicans will be faced with a choice. They could combine much of the current #6 and #18 and have Gibbs and Johnson run against each other or move Johnson into the new #13 and have him face off against Tim Ryan in the general election. That district contains so many Democrats he'd be certain to lose. The Republicans could drop out the western most areas of the district to give Johnson a chance, but that'd weaken Gibbs and Renacci's districts.
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