Stuff White People Like Part II

The House map shows a high concentration of Democratic House seats in three areas, the northeast corridor, the upper Midwest, and the west coast. The northeast corridor runs from the DC metro area through eastern Maryland, Delaware, the city of Philadelphia, New York City, and then up to New England. I separated out western New York, Pennsylvania, and Maryland, areas that have little in common with the eastern parts of their states. I did throw South Florida in because a lot of the residents are transplanted from the northeast. Despite some gains here, the Republican Party still trails the Democrats by a count of 58-16.

The next group is in the upper Midwest, starting at Northern Illinois, Indiana and Ohio and including Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. While the Democrats lost both houses of the legislatures in 5 of these states and the governor’s mansion in 4, they still hold 27 seats. Nineteen of these are in the Chicago area or in the Detroit to Cleveland corridor, very urban areas.

Including only the more urban districts close to the coast, Democrats dominate the west by a 45 to 13 margin. In these three areas Democrats outnumber Republicans in the House by a 130 to 49 margin. One problem is that these states will lose 6-8 seats in the next redistricting.

The remainder of the country outside these four smaller areas is dominated by the Republicans. The GOP has 193 districts to the Democrats’ 62. Of those 62, 25 are gerrymandered majority minority districts that pack as many Blacks/Hispanics/Democrats in as possible. In districts where there’s a white majority Republicans have a 193 to 37 lead. Ten of those are in the areas of Pennsylvania and New York outside of the Philadelphia and New York City areas. They could’ve been included there but since Republicans picked up ten of their seats in this election they more closely fall into this grouping.

In 2012 the Democrats have 15 states for 187 electoral votes pretty much assured. The Republicans have 18 states for 152 in their column. To win, the Democrats will have to 83 electoral vote from the remaining toss-ups states.


Nine of the top ten states in minority (i.e. Democratic) populations are not expected to be competitive.


If they once again lose the white vote dramatically in these states, that could prove difficult.