Thursday, October 21, 2010
The Senate Climb
What makes this year so difficult for the Republicans is that there are so many states with more Democrats than Republicans. There are 23 seats with more Democrats and only 12 with more Republicans. Some of these states, however, have more Democrats but some of them tend to vote Republican on a national level. That varies, of course. West Virginia and Arkansas vote Republican for President, but don't vote Republican for congress or the state legislature.
Most of the states with a Democratic incumbent are an uphill Republican climb. Winning Washington, Wisconsin, or California requires heavy cross over, which is unusual, and a big win with independents. Indiana and North Dakota have a Democrat in a place where, all things being neutral, a Republican will win. Those are the easy ones. Getting to 51 is going to require a lot of things to go right in many of these states. Even with a wave that might happen in Wisconsin, but you need a pretty big wave for things to go right in so many states.
While so many Democratic seats are up in Democratic states, there are many more Democratic seats up in the House in Republican districts. That's why the House will easier to win.