The Internet is abuzz because PPP has a couple of polls out with better Democratic polling better and even those evil rascally Rasmussen folks are showing something. As any Democrat will tell you, Rasmussen is bought and paid for by the RNC in order to drive the election towards Republicans. Of course, I showed last month that ever since everyone went to the likely voter model, Rasmussen hasn't had a Republican skew compared to the other pollsters.
The story may be that things are moving Democratic. Don't believe it. As I said last week, early voting has already started. Nevada started voting Saturday and there are already a significant number of votes. These votes can't change. Most people have made up their minds. Many of those that haven't are probably not going to vote.
There are a number of races which are too close to call right now. They'll likely remain that way for most of election night. In 2008, Democrats and Republicans both won races decided by 5 points or less. They will again this year. But if 16 polls from 11 different pollsters show that Toomey is ahead by at least 3 and by 7 more than half the time, the race isn't going to suddenly shift this close to election day. That doesn't mean it can't move a few points either way, but senators who are far behind with less than a month to go never win.
On the other hand, don't believe that Republicans are going to take 70 or 80 seats in the House. Politico is touting "99 seats in play." Charlie Cook lists 115 races. Real Clear Politics has 133! Republicans have been putting out a lot of polls that have obscure candidates within 8 points of Democrats who were thought of as safe. They are safe, even if the experts fall for these polls. If a Republican had himself within 6, he's probably 12 points down and not in the race.
Republicans will win 223 to 230 seats in the House and 46 to 49 seats in the Senate. Which ones might change a little bit either way, but things aren't changing one way or another.
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