Sunday, October 31, 2010

Final House Predictions

Am I better at this than the experts? At least I'll commit to each race. No toss-ups. You're always right (and wrong) if you pick it a toss-up.

Democratic to Republican (59 seats)
Arizona 1
Arizona 5
Arkansas 1
Arkansas 2
California 11
California 20
Colorado 3
Colorado 4
Florida 2
Florida 22
Florida 24
Florida 8
Georgia 2
Georgia 8
Illinois 11
Illinois 14
Illinois 17
Indiana 8
Indiana 9
Kansas 3
Louisiana 3
Maine 1
Maryland 1
Michigan 1
Mississippi 1
Nevada 3
New Hampshire 1
New Jersey 3
New Mexico 2
New York 19
New York 20
New York 29
North Carolina 2
North Carolina 8
North Dakota
Ohio 1
Ohio 15
Ohio 16
Ohio 18
Oregon 5
Pennsylvania 10
Pennsylvania 11
Pennsylvania 3
Pennsylvania 7
Pennsylvania 8
South Carolina 5
South Dakota
Tennessee 4
Tennessee 6
Tennessee 8
Texas 17
Texas 23
Virginia 11
Virginia 2
Virginia 5
Washington 3
West Virginia 1
Wisconsin 7
Wisconsin 8

Republican to Democratic (4 seats)
Delaware
Hawaii 1
Illinois 10
Louisiana 2

Net: 55 seats
Republicans: 234
Democrats: 201

The following is a list of 20 seats that'll flip is it's a big tsunami. I'm not hedging my bet. The picks are the picks. But if 5 of my next 10 flip I think I deserve credit. If it's #5, #11, and #19 I don't.

1. Mississippi 4
2. New Hampshire 2
3. Colorado 7
4. Arizona 8
5. Michigan 7
6. Connecticut 4
7. Connecticut 5
8. Alabama 2
9. Massachusetts 10
10. New York 23
11. Washington 9
12. Michigan 9
13. Ohio 6
14. Illinois 8
15. Virginia 09
16. Mississippi 2
17. Minnesota 1
18. Minnesota 8
19. New York 24
20. North Carolina 7

That'd be a 79 seat gain. It's possible Republicans could pick up seats not on this 79. All the forecasters have more seats than I do that are "Lean Democratic" or better. Real Clear Politics lists 135 Democratic seats potentially in play. I'll stick with my list.

No comments:

Post a Comment