Thursday, October 21, 2010

Generic Ballot

The generic ballot is moving in the Democrats favor! Before they go about celebrating, that's not really good news. Of the 9 pollsters who surveyed likely voters last month and this month, Republicans dropped from an +8.1 to +7.4. That's not much of a gain. This close to the election that's not enough of a shift to make a difference. If you include the three pollsters who switched from registered to likely the average is +7.7. In 1994 Republicans won the House vote by 7 points and got 231 seats. In 2002 they won by 5 points and got 227 seats. In 1946 they won the vote by 9 points and got 246 seats. In 1996 Republicans got 49.8% of the vote and retained the majority. That was the only time a party won less than 50% of the vote and got the majority.

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