As election night returns come in, we’ll want to know whether Republicans are on pace to take a majority in the House or if the Democrats will retain control. We’ll be able to judge that based on how many net seats Republicans have picked up. There are two caveats to the following timeline:
1. Exit polls might not be available for many races. So we’ll rely on the SoS tally in each state. Some states are faster than others. So a state might not be done before later states come out with their returns.
2. Some races will be so close that the results won’t be known until days later. Those seats count just the same as ones won on election night.
7 PM Polls Close: South Carolina, Georgia, Indiana, Vermont, Kentucky, Virginia
Democratic Seats possible: 13
Democratic Seats that are very vulnerable: 7
Republican Seats possible: 0
Republican Seats that are very vulnerable: 0
Republican net pick-up count: +4
Republicans have strong pick-up possibilities in Virginia and Indiana. If they’re not flipping, Republicans could be in trouble. Seats in Georgia and Kentucky are less vulnerable. If they’re flipping, it’ll be a long night for Democrats.
7:30 PM Polls Close: North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia
Democratic Seats possible: 13
Democratic Seats that are very vulnerable: 7
Republican Seats possible: 1
Republican Seats that are very vulnerable: 0
Republican net pick-up count: +9
Republicans should pick up either five seats at 7 and four at 7:30 or vice versa to be up 9 seats. Ohio is a huge pick-up opportunity for the GOP, with five seats that look like a strong possibility to flip. At this point Republicans shouldn’t have lost any of their own seats. In the nine states that close before 8 PM, only OH-12 is considered to be potentially vulnerable and that seat is considered highly unlikely to flip.
8:00 PM Polls Close: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas
Democratic Seats possible: 48
Democratic Seats that are very vulnerable: 28
Republican Seats possible: 8
Republican Seats that are very vulnerable: 3
Republican net pick-up count: +23
There are a lot of states here and a lot of vulnerable seats. The key states to watch are Illinois, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee. Illinois has four strong possibilities for the GOP, while there nine possible, and six very vulnerable.
Three of the five most vulnerable GOP seats, IL-10, FL-25, DE-AL, are possible flips, but a strong GOP showing should be able to overcome that. At this point the Democrats will have had 74 possible losses and 42 very vulnerable compared to 9 and 3 for the Republican Party.
If it’s going to be a GOP landslide the Republicans might already be at +39 before 8:30 PM eastern.
8:30 PM Polls Close: Arkansas
Democratic Seats possible: 3
Democratic Seats that are very vulnerable: 2
Republican Seats possible: 0
Republican Seats that are very vulnerable: 0
Republican net pick-up count: +25
Arkansas has to be different. While picking up two seats here isn’t mandatory for the majority, the Arkansas seats are very important for the GOP. Despite voting Republican for President, Democrats have continued to hold these seats for years. If they don’t flip now, they might not for a long time.
9:00 PM Polls Close: Arizona, Colorado, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Wisconsin, Wyoming
Democratic Seats possible: 32
Democratic Seats that are very vulnerable: 17
Republican Seats possible: 5
Republican Seats that are very vulnerable: 1
Republican net pick-up count: +34
I consider it very likely that people will be using “Speaker Boehner” at this point. While they should be at least +34 to be on pace, I expect them to be over 40 when these votes are counted. Arizona, Colorado, Michigan, and Wisconsin are states where Republicans could pick up multiple seats. It’s possible, but unlikely, that all three Democratic New Mexican congressmen could go down.
New York has 26 Democratic districts and there are a multitude of possible Republican pick-ups here. The New York Republican Party has been very ineffective. It’s possible the GOP might only pick up 1 or 2 New York seats.
If Joe Cao defends the most Democratic seat held by a Republican, it’ll be a GOP landslide.
10:00 PM Polls Close: Hawaii, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Nevada, North Dakota, Utah
Democratic Seats possible: 8
Democratic Seats that are very vulnerable: 4
Republican Seats possible: 2
Republican Seats that are very vulnerable: 1
Republican net pick-up count: +37
These 7 states have only 20 congressional districts. There is a strong pick-up possibility in Kansas and a 3 other good ones, but this isn’t a group of states that Republicans should count on.
11:00 PM Polls Close: California, Oregon, Washington
Democratic Seats possible: 10
Democratic Seats that are very vulnerable: 5
Republican Seats possible: 5
Republican Seats that are very vulnerable: 1
Republican net pick-up count: +39
If Republicans are counting on the Golden State or the rest of the west coast they could be in a lot of trouble. Democrats only picked up one Republican seat in 2006 and 2008, so this list of vulnerables may be high. On the other hand, there were six California/Washington districts the GOP retained by less than ten points in 2008. Two are considered safe, while three of the four other seats are thought to be Democratic long shots. That said, if California bucks the national trend and goes Democratic, Republicans could lose the majority they thought they won earlier in the evening.
Alaska closes at midnight eastern. There’s only one House seat there and the Republicans are holding it. A recent poll showed Don Young with a 33 point lead. If his seat is even in discussion Republicans won’t be close to a majority.
Keep in mind that this is the pace the seats need to flip, not a prediction. If Republicans are +37 before the 11 PM returns come in, they should get to 39, but that's in no way guaranteed. If you're a Republican you want the GOP to be ahead of the pace each half hour. If you're a Democrat you want them below it.
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