Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Good News for Fiorina

PPP, a Democratic polling firm, has come out with a poll where Carly Fiorina is losing by 9 points. Clearly, she's done, right? Wrong. This is a great poll for Fiorina. If you look closely you'll see that 26% of this year's voters have already voted and they favor Boxer by only 48%-46%. That's a significant amount of voters, so the 2 point difference is very meaningful and likely highly indicative.

PPP has a 47% Democratic electorate and a 13 point differential between Democrats and Republicans. Democrats were 40%, 41%, and 42% in 2004, 2006, and 2008. The differential was 7%, 6%, and 12%. Once again PPP's electorate is way more Democratic than even California can produce.

Extrapolating their responses by party, the people who have already voted could be 40% Democratic 33% Republican 27% independent, the 2004 electorate or 41% Democratic 35% Republican 24% independent, the 2006 electorate. Both would produce the same results. If Fiorina gets either the 2004 or 2006 electorate and wins independents by 17 points, it's a toss up. It's certainly possible the electorate won't be like 2004 and 2006 and be more like 2008, but since the voting so far, with 26% already voting, has been 2004/2006.

The polls in the last two weeks have ranged from Fiorina +3 to this one with Boxer +9. I'm telling Carly and California Republicans not to give up. We're really neck and neck.

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