Sunday, October 24, 2010
I'm not projecting Republicans 229.5 Democrats 205.5. I have 9 Democratic districts as Safe Republican. A lot of people don't do this, but if you're predicting the Republicans will pick up 40-50 you have some locks that'll be clear weeks before. Likewise, I put Delaware firmly into the Democratic column.
Real Clear Politics is aggressive in their predictions. They now have 133 Democratic districts in play, with 108 Lean Democratic or better. They're including any district that there's a hint of a competitive race. The formula only puts them at 236-199 Republican, however. 538 is run by Democrats and they list a 230-205 split.
The formula says that Larry Sabato is predicting a 218.5-216.5 Republican advantage. He's already declared a net of +47 for the GOP (226-209), so expect him to move some to the right. Stu Rothenberg is saying Republicans will be +45 (224) to +55 (234). The formula puts him at 45. Cook says Republicans +52 (231), but they are 5 shy of that. The formula puts them at 226. CQ hasn't given a number, but the formula puts them at Republicans 222-213. When all the experts predict that the floor is flipping the House, you can be pretty sure it'll happen.