House Prediction Update

One of the nagging questions I've had is how accurate campaign polls are. If I see a poll from a Republican challenger that has him down 8, is he close? Nate Silver has access to a lot of polls. His analysis says that there is a 6 point difference between campaign polls and independent polls. So the Republican above is likely down around 14 points and is only showing this internal so that people will think he has a chance. If they think that, he might actually have a chance.

Knowing this, I was able to re-evaluate the races and dispatch the races that just aren't even in the realm of possibility. I dropped four races as potentially flipping, dropping vulnerable Democrats from 115 to 111. Now I have 83 Lean Democrat or better, compared to 89 a week or so ago. I'm lowering my prediction from Republicans 229-206 to Republicans 227-208. This is actually one more seat than I predicted on October 6. Any Republican will be happy with 226 seats, a 48 seat net.



On the other hand, Real Clear Politics now has 130 vulnerable Democrats, while Charlie Cook is at 115. Republicans aren't going to take 130 seats or even in 115. They don't have to. The narrative here is that the playing field is so vast that the Democrats don't know where they have to defend and will spread their resources then.