Tuesday, June 17, 2014

California Senate Results Analysis

There are seven California senate districts currently held by Republicans. In addition to those, there are two other districts Republicans are competing in, one a newly drawn Riverside district and one a Democratic district in Orange County where the incumbent is termed out. In two of the districts, there's no Democrat on the primary ballot. Here are the results in the other seven districts:

4 - Republicans 63.9% Democrats 36.1%
8 - Republicans 65.3% Democrats 34.7%
12 - Republicans 63.8% Democrats 36.2%
14 - Republicans 61.6% Democrats 38.4%
28 - Republicans 66.2% Democrats 33.8%
34 - Republicans 66.7% Democrats 33.3%
38 - Republicans 71.2% Democrats 28.8%

Can you pick out the districts Democrats are expected to contend in November? The correct answer is probably none of them. Democrats won 2% of 2010 contests where Republicans won the primary by more than 22%. If they do contend, the obvious districts are SD-12 and SD-14 in the Central Valley. Even though those are districts Dianne Feinstein won in 2012 by 18%, I doubt the Democratic candidates will compete for those seats. The one Democrats expected to do best in was SD-34, but that was their second worst district in the primary. If Democrats can win SD-34, you'd think they could also win SD-4 and SD-8. They can't win SD-28, because two Republicans finished Top Two. Unlike the congressional races, these districts look very good for the GOP. I'd be surprised if they don't win any of these seven districts. That'll give the GOP 14 senate seats, a level that denies Democrats the supermajority. The good news for the GOP is that these districts won't be up again until the next mid-term in 2018. Republicans won't have to risk losing them during a Presidential year.

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